WASHINGTON (AP) – US and European officials say serious peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are unlikely in the foreseeable future, even as the Biden administration tries to dismiss growing demands from some members of Congress about the unlimited investment of the American government at war.
Russian and Ukrainian officials have made separate public comments in recent days possible negotiations more than six months after their last known direct talks failed.
But US officials say they don’t think talks will start anytime soon and both sides believe continuing to fight, for now, will strengthen their possible negotiating positions.
They also admit that it is difficult to imagine the terms of an agreement that Ukraine and Russia would accept.
Ukrainian officials are optimistic about their military prospects after making unexpectedly large gains this fall.
Their morale rose again on Wednesday when Russia ordered its forces to do so they will withdraw from the southern city of Cherson.
Perhaps more importantly, US and European officials say, the Ukrainian population has been hardened by the devastating Russian military campaign, which destroyed civilian areas and resulted in massacres, rape and looting.
Even if the Ukrainian leadership were willing to make concessions to end the fighting, its people is not willing accept it, officials say.
US officials say recent Russian attacks on the infrastructure criticism has made negotiations less likely by eroding any public support for the compromise.
And even if the Russian president VladimirPutin suffered repeated military losses and withdrawals, officials say they believe the US and Europe, struggling with rising energy prices, fears of nuclear escalation and political instability, could lose willingness to continue supporting Ukraine. at current levels.
After his army’s apparent embarrassment in Kherson, Putin is less likely to seek peace than to redouble his efforts to put pressure on Ukraine and the West.
Western officials see events this fall, such as alleged sabotage of the German railway system and drone surveillance of Norwegian offshore oil platforms, as possible. omens of the great Russian interruptions.
The end
More than eight months after the Russian invasion, US and European officials have a hard time describing a plausible end to the conflict that would be acceptable to the Ukrainian president. Volodymyr Zelensky and for Putin, who has long been obsessed with the country.
President Joe Biden he said on Wednesday that the Ukrainians would ultimately decide the final state of their country.
“Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” he said.
The White House has made a commitment does not negotiater nothing about the future of Ukraine without the presence of representatives of kyiv.
But Biden faces increasing pressure from some sections of Congress.
As the war progresses, House Republicans say they intend to step up scrutiny over US aid to Ukraine, especially humanitarian assistance.
And some proponents of the negotiations say the talks should at least begin exploring the possibilities of common ground.
Last month, 30 progressive Democrats in the House sent, then quickly withdrew under political pressure, a letter to Biden asking “redouble your efforts find a realistic framework for a ceasefire ”.
“The question is not whether you can see an overlap in their positions in a Venn diagram right now, or whether we see Russia ready to make concessions preemptively,” said Samuel Charap, analyst at Rand Corp.
“It is that there is value in having open channels to lay the foundations for the future. Talking and fighting at the same time has often been the rule in conflict situations “.
But US officials and analysts warn that Putin often uses diplomacy as a tool to do so To gain some time and divide their enemies.
“People in the West are understandably shocked at the prospect of this horrific war going on for months, if not years,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president of studies at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and co-author of “Accidental Tsar,” a new biography. Putin in the style of a graphic novel.
“But we must not be fooled into thinking that the Russians have ever negotiated in good faith on Ukraine.
“Their curriculum since the start of the war in 2014 has consistently been focused on a combination of playing for time and trying to create a wedge between the US and Europeans on the one hand and the US and Ukrainians on the one hand. the Other “.
Weiss added, referring to the Russian military occupation of the peninsula Crimea in Ukraine and the aggression in the eastern Donbas area of the country that began that year.
State Department spokesman Ned Price made a similar note on Tuesday.
“We have seen nothing to indicate that the Russians are willing to enter into good faith negotiations at this point,” he told reporters, adding that Moscow could show sincerity in stopping attacks on targets. civilians.
The Biden administration is increasingly forced to walk a tightrope in balancing messages for the Ukrainian and American public.
On the one hand, Biden tried to reassure Ukraine that US support remains strong.
On the other hand, he was asked to explain how he could end a war that he believes could lead to “Armageddon“.
Jake Sullivanthe White House National Security Advisor said on Friday on a visit to Ukraine that US support for Ukraine would be “unwavering and seamless,” offering reassurance regardless of any concerns in Congress.
“We have every intention of making sure that resources are available as needed and that we get votes from both sides of Congress for this to happen,” Sullivan told reporters in the capital Kiev, where he met Zelensky.
Sullivan asked Zelensky for his ideas on “a just peace”, not to put pressure on the Ukrainian government but to get a better idea of what the end of the war would be like from a Ukrainian perspective, an administration official said. Biden.
“A just peace” was a phrase used in an October 11 statement from group of 7 nations which extensively described the terms of a possible agreement, including Ukraine’s right to “regain full control of its territory within its internationally recognized borders”;
rebuilding his country, potentially with funds from Russia; and “responsibility” for Russian war crimes.
In his late night speech to his country on Monday, Zelensky enumerated precisely these conditions.
Some analysts noted that Zelensky did not repeat his previous refusal to negotiate with a Putin-led Russian government.
Russian officials insisted on their willingness to speak up and tried to portray Kiev as the resistance.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said on Tuesday that Ukraine does not have the “goodwill” to speak honestly.
“This is your choice. We have always declared our readiness for such negotiations, “she said, a message that concerned US officials could resonate with neutral nations around the world if not clearly opposed by Ukrainian leaders.
Source: Clarin
