From last Tuesday (8), the United States’ “midterms” – midterm elections that renew all positions in the House of Representatives (similar to the House of Representatives) and part of the US Senate – have created a climate of tension. Democratic and Republican parties and their main politicians. Among them are President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Not all votes have been counted yet, and there is an open race for the Senate in the state of Georgia heading to the second round. But among the few certainties yet to be identified in a scenario are two: the failure of the “republican red wave” theory in these elections, and the rise of a dangerous foe for Trump within the party.
red wave? It wasn’t this time. In the United States, the Republican Party is represented by the color red, along with the elephant symbol and abbreviation. GOP (from the English “Grand Old Party“, Great Old Party).
Therefore, the emergence of a “red wave” would be a crushing advance of the Republicans in the House and Senate; this is a hypothesis put forward by the most radical sections of the party. But that didn’t happen.
Also, consulted by analysts UOL I believe in Biden’s chances of being re-elected by the Democrats. Despite his advanced age – Biden will be 81 on the day of the 2024 presidential race – the Democrat has taken advantage of the fact that his party has not lost as many seats as predicted. At the same time, he did not see any leadership emerge in the party that would face him in this election.
Advantage Republicans House of Representatives. The red party is getting closer and closer to taking control from Biden’s Democrats. According to CNN, Republicans have so far secured at least 211 of the 218 seats in the House – a number that guarantees a majority – while the Democrats have won 198.
This left 26 open disputes, mostly in the states of Arizona, California and Nevada.
There is a fierce competition in the Senate: Republicans have 49 seats, Democrats have 48 seats. You must be at least 51 years old to win majority at home. Votes are still being counted in Arizona and Nevada.
Americans were able to vote by mail in advance in some states or in person on Tuesday, often leaving a paper containing the contents of the votes at a ballot box. A few states have an electronic voting system. For this reason, the count takes longer than, for example, the Brazilian elections.
Road looks paved for Biden re-election, for results to date. Lucas Leite, associate professor of international relations at FAAP, explains that the midterm elections also serve as a “referendum” on the popularity of the incumbent.
To rule in a possible scenario of defeat in one or both houses, the professor says, the history of “bipartisan cohesion” observed in past governments tends not to be repeated again, which will complicate the next two years of the president’s term. .
Given the difficulty for a president to keep both legislatures under his party’s control, this alignment arose out of necessity. This most recently happened after George W. Bush’s 2002 presidential primary elections. After that, Barack Obama in 2010 and Trump in 2018 had to deal with different majority Houses after the ‘midterms’.
However, the Trump era has been marked by a major split in understanding between Republicans and Democrats in particular.
[Antes de Trump] there was no such strong polarization, the two parties still had moderate and close wings. Today, with the radicalization of the Republican Party, we perceive a greater challenge. They lost a lot of consensus.
Lucas Leite, associate professor in the FAAP Department of International Relations
Even so, Republicans’ disappointment in this congressional election, Biden administration not welcomed by Americans???????? Leite explains that historically it has been the practice of parties to nominate the current president for re-election to prevent primary elections from fraying in front of the electorate, and that the frustration of the “red wave” can reinforce this strategy.
“Biden has a good chance of becoming a Democrat because in general, parties prefer to keep candidates when there is a re-election candidacy,” says Lucas Leite.
“This makes our job a lot easier in terms of party organization and resource savings. If it’s defined beforehand, the campaign starts earlier and Biden has the advantage.”
Trump was active in this election, but is weakened and leaves with a new opponent. The former republican president, who wanted to run for 2024, was one of the biggest propagandists of the “red wave” idea, publicly endorsed names for legislative positions and state governments continued to create distrust of the polls, and even so. a negative ending balance.
This diagnosis has a name as a hero: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by a wider margin than in the past. A Republican seen by the party and by more moderate and overtly non-Trumpist voters as an option for the 2024 presidential race.
Some of the main conservative media in the United States, such as Fox News and Wall Street newspapers daily and The New York Post published critical reviews of Trump. Also called Fox NewsSantis “The new leader of the Republican Party”.
Pressure is being put on Trump to delay the announcement of his candidacy, scheduled for November 15. He described DeSantis as “disloyal” and said there were “terrible revelations” about him without proof.
Vinicius Vieira, International Relations from Oxford University, He highlights that Ron DeSantis received a significant vote in Latino districts in Florida, rejecting Trump. After non-Hispanic whites, Latinos are the largest ethnic group in the United States – hence, the second largest electorate.
Additionally, DeSantis’ policies against school autonomy in Florida have been popular with conservatives. One of the laws passed during his first term regulated what educational institutions, from schools to universities, could teach about race and gender. DeSantis defended the law as a way to prevent people from “fearing the actions of their ancestors,” such as the trade of enslaved blacks from Africa to the United States.
The law has been fiercely criticized by educational institutions, educators, and social organizations, and there are already challenges to its legality in Florida Courts.
The university scientific environment is one of Trumpism’s biggest targets. DeSantis doesn’t trash Trump’s agenda, adopting some, notably his anti-elite stance, and is a classic conservative in stances such as foreign policy.
Vinicius Vieira, PhD in International Relations from Oxford University
Image: REUTERS/Marco Bello
“In the Republican Party maybe [os eleitores] He evaluates the party, which in the 1980s had less of a state stance, liberal in economics, conservative in tradition, but without this tension, especially with institutions, with the Supreme Court, Congress and the media in social relations.
“Trump is not a card out of the pack”. Professor Vieira doesn’t rule out Trump’s electoral potential, who garnered 74 million votes compared to Biden’s 81 million – both with two cuts in vote count in the nation’s presidential election history.
“Today, looking back, it seems that he wasn’t that strong, but he’s obviously not out of the game.”
A definitive thermometer of that strength will be the Republican primaries, which will end with the rival name in the 2024 dispute, and “Trump will try to turn it around by then,” he adds.
The incumbent president’s party has not lost as many seats as it has historically. During Trump’s tenure, 40 Democrats from Republicans were in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, while as of this writing this year, Republicans had reclaimed 16 seats from the Democrats.
Perhaps we got support from the American electorate for Biden’s view that what is at issue is not just an assessment of his time, but American democracy itself. Trump has become a disturbing figure, even through FBI investigations.
Vinicius Vieira, PhD in International Relations from Oxford University
The fight for the last two seats in the Senate did not signal Republican progress, either. Rather: the Democrats took a stand from their Pennsylvania adversaries. Also, even if they draw, the Democrats have the “minerva vote” of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Image: Drew Angerer/Getty Images/AFP
source: Noticias
