What is North Korea looking for with the launch of its missiles?

This Friday, North Korea launched its second ICBM of November and one of the most powerful so far, the most recent military test it has rising tension on the Korean peninsula to a level not seen since 2017, when Kim Jong-un’s regime tested an intercontinental missile that proved capable of reaching the United States.

So far in 2022, North Korea has launched a record number of more than 40 missilesof various scope and types, including new tests with intercontinental projectiles and an incident in which missiles were launched on the island of Japan which forced the population to seek refuge in a preventive manner.

To these episodes we must add other theoretically minor ones, such as for example unauthorized flights and raids close to the border with South Korea, but that end up setting up a scenario that has inside maximum alert for Seoul, Tokyo and Washington.

Three hypotheses to explain Pyongyang’s behavior

According to experts, there are three possible hypotheses that explain why Pyongyang conducted a ballistics test: because it is actually trying to test its weapons, because he wants to send a message to his enemies (mainly the United States), or because they want to impress their population and strengthen their loyalty to the regime.

Although the reasoning behind each launch is not always clear, in recent incidents the official press has been explicit in clarifying that the tests were carried out in response to military exercises that South Korea, Japan and the United States have been conducting for months. in an attempt to prove it they are ready for a possible nuclear attack from Pyongyang.

Kim Jong-un, for his part, blames these countries for the escalation of tension in the region and says that firing their missiles is his way of telling them to stop their military activities.

From the North Korean regime’s perspective, these exercises are a clear display of hostility and proof that an invasion of their country is a real possibility. In this regard, they point to the fact that it was their fear of being invaded that led them to try to develop nuclear weapons.

However, there are those who suggest that the reason behind the ballistics test escalation is that Pyongyang is preparing for something bigger, which could be a nuclear test or the evidence of a South Korean invasion.

In February 2021, Kim Jong-un unveiled his five-year plan to boost North Korea’s economy at the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, a mass gathering that brought all members together for the first time in decades.

In his three-hour speech, Kim also detailed the entire military arsenal he planned to build including tactical nuclear weapons and the artillery missiles capable of carrying them.

The 2022 ballistics tests can be read as proof not only that the Korean leader is advancing in the implementation of its weapons planbut also in the task that his troops learn to handle it.

There is speculation that the North Korean regime’s military tests are their way of putting pressure on the lifting of sanctionsa central obstacle to Kim’s ultimate goal of improving the country’s economy.

The geopolitical context, however, has changed drastically in 2022and the summits between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump that captured the world’s attention have been forgotten.

The North Korean regime can see how talks on easing sanctions have begun to slip down the order of priorities for the international community, stalled by the war in Ukraine and the highest global inflation in 40 years.

In this context, Kim would resort to these explosive tactics to remind Joe Biden and other world leaders of this your country is still capable of inflicting damage in an attempt to make their demands heard.

The US government’s position remains that any negotiations to ease or lift sanctions must begin with Pyongyang abandoning its nuclear program.

Although Kim’s position may be his response to a change in the international scenario that feels like condemning him to insignificance, specialists matter what they perceive is a level of audacity that had not been seen in the behavior of the country.

“We’ve never seen this boldness and aggression, it’s different. It’s North Korea that behaves like a nuclear state,” Kim Jong-dae, a former adviser to the South Korean defense ministry, told the BBC.

He stressed, in this regard, the fact that Pyongyang expected South Korea and the United States complete your military drills before launching your missiles. That precaution appears to have been sidelined, and now he fired shells into the sea as drills continued in Seoul and Washington.

Clarin Editorial