Inflation in the US hits the Thanksgiving table, which comes with increases and fewer plates

In early November, Hays Culbreth’s mother sent out a survey to some of her family members. She told them that she could only afford to prepare two side dishes for the fifteen dinner guests. Thanksgivingto be held next week, and asked them to vote for their favorite dishes.

Culbreth thinks the green beans and macaroni and cheese will score the points, but his favorite brown sugar topped sweet potato casserole, won’t.

“Speaking of ruining Thanksgiving…” jokes Culbreth, 27, a financial planner from Knoxville, Tennessee.

Americans are gearing up for an expensive Thanksgiving this year, with double-digit price increases for turkey, potatoes, stuffing, canned squash, and other staples.

The US government values ​​it the food prices to rise between 9.5% and 10.5% this year; historically, they have only increased by 2% per year.

Lower production and rising labor, transportation, and product costs are part of the reason; disease, bad weather and war in Ukraine also contribute.

“It’s not really about scarcity. It’s about less supply with some good reasons for that,” said David Anderson, a professor and agricultural economist at Texas A&M.

few turkeys

The wholesale price of the turkey is in historical highs after a difficult year for US manufacturing. A particularly deadly strain of bird flu — first reported in February at an Indiana turkey farm — has killed 49 million turkeys and other poultry in 46 states this year, according to the US Centers for Disease Control.

Consequentially, U.S. turkey supply per capita at lowest level since 1986 said Mark Jordan, CEO of Jonesboro, Arkansas-based Leap Market Analytics.

Jordan expects the wholesale price of a 3.5- to 15-pound frozen turkey — the kind usually bought for Thanksgiving — to hit $1.77 per pound (0.453 gram) in November, a 28 percent increase from last month. same month last year.

Still, there will be plenty of whole birds for Thanksgiving tables, Jordan said. In recent years, companies have directed a higher percentage of birds to the entire turkey market to take advantage of the steady holiday demand.

And not all growers have been equally affected. Butterball — which supplies about a third of Thanksgiving turkeys — said bird flu affected just 1 percent of its production due to safety measures implemented after the last major flu outbreak in 2015.

But it may be more difficult for buyers to find turkey breasts and other cuts, Jordan said. And higher ham prices are giving cooks fewer cheap alternatives, she said.

Eggs at record prices

Bird flu also brought Egg prices at a record highaccording to Anderson. In the second week of November, a dozen Grade A eggs sold for an average of $2.28, more than double the previous year’s price, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Egg prices would have been higher even without the flu, Anderson said, due to the rising cost of corn and soybean meal used to feed chickens. Ukraine is normally a major exporter of corn and the loss of that supply has pushed up world prices.

Add to this the increase in the price of canned pumpkin – the 850 gram can is up 17% from last year, according to market study Datasembly – it is clear that the Thanksgiving dessert will be more expensive too. Nestle-owned Libby’s, which produces 85 percent of the world’s canned pumpkin, said pumpkin harvests were at similar levels to previous years, but it had to make up higher labor, transportation, fuel and energy costs.

Are you going to prepare more side dishes? This too will cost you. A 500-gram pack of filling costs 14 percent more than last year, Datasemby said. And a 5-pound bag of Russet potatoes averaged $3.26 the second week of November, 45.5 percent more than a year ago.

Craig Carlson, CEO of Chicago-based Carlson Produce Consulting, said frost and a wet spring have slowed potato growth significantly this year. Manufacturers have also raised prices to compensate the higher cost of seeds, fertilizers, diesel and machinery. Production costs have risen as much as 35% for some growers this year, an increase they can’t always recoup, Carlson said.

The cost of the job

Rising labor and food costs also make it more expensive to order a prepared meal. Whole Foods advertises a classic Thanksgiving banquet for eight people for $179.99. That’s $40 more than the advertised price last year.

The good news? Not all items on holiday shopping lists are significantly more expensive. Blueberries had a good harvest and prices rose less than 5 percent between late September and early November, said Paul Mitchell, an agricultural economist and professor at the University of Wisconsin. Green beans were just 2 cents more per pound in the second week of November, according to the USDA.

And many grocery stores are discounting turkeys and other holiday staples in hopes that shoppers will spend more on other items.

Walmart is promising turkeys for less than $1 a pound and says the ham, potatoes and stuffing will cost the same as last year. Kroger and Lidl have also dropped their prices, so shoppers can spend $5 or less apiece for a meal for ten. Aldi is bringing prices back to 2019 levels.

But Hays Culbreth isn’t optimistic about her casserole. He’s not much of a chef, so he plans to grab a couple of pumpkin pies from the grocery store while he goes to his family’s party.

Source: Associated Press

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