As country after country succumbed to epidemics this year, China kept the coronavirus at bay, earning a precious time to prepare for the inevitable: a variant of the virus so volatile and contagious that even China would be hard-pressed to contain it.

But instead of pioneering that scenario, China has stepped up its commitment to “COVID zero,” implementing instant lockdowns and contact tracing.

Meanwhile, daily vaccinations have dropped to historic lows.

Intensive care beds remained in short supply, even as workers built testing cabins and isolation facilities.

to research mRNA vaccines domestically produced products could not keep up with the rapidly mutating virus.

Now the costs of this approach are mounting, putting China in a bind from which there appears to be no easy way out, the scientists said in interviews.

Even as new COVID cases hit an all-time high, residents took to the streets to protest the lockdowns that have shut down daily life in many cities.

Alarmed, the authorities started doing it loosen restrictions.

Researchers fear China may have difficulty reopening the country and easing pressure on its economy without risking a tide of dead

Such a catastrophic wave could pose a significant threat to political leaders.

“We often pretend that China has a ‘COVID zero’ choice over opening up,” said Dr. Siddharth Sridhar, a virus expert at the University of Hong Kong.

“There has never been an election. The simple fact is that China it’s not ready for a wave that size.

Nothing has delayed China’s preparations like its difficulty in vaccinating the elderly.

Two-thirds of people aged 80 and over are vaccinated, but only 40% have received a booster dose, a critical gap because Chinese-made vaccines offer a weaker protection compared to Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.

In a study conducted during Hong Kong’s omicron surge, two doses of China’s main national vaccine, Sinovacthey were only 58% effective against severe COVID or death in people 80 and older.

Instead, two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech they were 87% effective in the same group.

An earlier study conducted in Brazil found that two doses of Sinovac were only 61% effective at preventing death from COVID.

These results consolidated the impression among scientists that the Chinese injections on which they are based dead virus to elicit an immune response, they are effectively a vaccine of three doses, instead of two.