Excess mortality from Covid-19 is three times higher than estimated

Between 2020 and 2021, there were an estimated 14.83 million deaths associated with covid-19 worldwide, an estimate nearly three times higher than the number of previously reported deaths from this same disease.

These estimates, based on mathematical models, are the same World Health Organization (WHO) and are collected in an article published this Wednesday in the journal Nature.

The excess mortality is the difference between the total number of deaths estimated for a place and time and the number of deaths that might have been expected in the absence of a crisis, in this case the Covid-19 pandemic.

For this calculation, both the deaths directly attributable to the disease as well as its impact on the healthcare system and society.

The study concludes that Covid-19 was responsible for between 13.3 and 16.6 (most likely 14.83) million excess deaths worldwide, i.e., 2.74 times more deaths compared to 5.42 million previously reported.

Excess mortality was 4.47 million in 2020 and 10.36 million in 2021.

The authors of the study indicate that some factors have made evaluation difficult of the total effect of this disease on the world population.

Among these determining factors are the variations of the access to tests; differences in diagnostic ability; variations in notification of cause of death and inconsistent certification of Covid-19 as a cause of death.

The team, led by William Msemburi of WHOcalculated excess deaths, i.e. the comparison of 2020 and 2021 mortality data with the number of deaths that would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred.

Because of this used a mathematical model which was able to predict expected deaths and lower mortality from 2020 to 2021 for those countries with incomplete or missing data.

The study indicates this only one hundred countries in the world (52%) had detailed and complete mortality data.

The journal explains that the excess mortality takes into account both the total number of deaths attributed directly to the virus and the indirect impact, including the disruption of essential health services or travel disruptions.

Beyond what is directly attributed to Covid-19, the pandemic has also caused the great collateral damage it has caused profound losses of livelihoods and of lives.

Because of the statistical modeling required to draw these conclusions, the authors advise interpreting some of these estimates with caution, according to a cable from EFE news agency.

In a support article accompanying the study, Enrique Acosta of the Spanish Center for Demographic Studiespoints out that four out of five excess deaths occur in middle-income countries, and some of the hardest hit have been those in Latin America.

The complexity of estimating the effect of the pandemic on global mortality underscores the urgency need to build robust systems and centralized systems that allow for real-time monitoring of global mortality, writes Acosta.

Building such systems, he recalls, “requires substantial global efforts to strengthen crucial vital statistics and civil registration systems around the world, especially in low- and middle-income countries. But, once built, they will serve as an essential early warning to future pandemics and health crises.”