Political crisis in Peru: complex scenario in Congress if there are elections

Challenged by calls for snap elections from both the Peruvian left and right, albeit nuanced, social protests with deaths in the streets were what precipitated the decision to the new president Dina Boluarte send to Congress the draft to bring forward the elections by the end of 2023.

For some analysts it is the product of the president’s original weakness, while others ensure that the idea of ​​bringing forward the elections it can create the conditions for the winner to be an extremist leader. In short, it is an emergency measure on an extremely complicated scenario.

“The current one is a weak government. President Dina Boluarte doesn’t have much support from any movement in the country, not even in Congress, and on the streets they consider her a traitor,” she explained to clarion Jorge González Izquierdo, professor of Economics at the Universidad del Pacífico and former Minister of Labor and Social Promotion.

Asked by this newspaper about the scenario that now introduces the possibility of bringing forward the elections as proposed by the new Peruvian Executive, he adds: “Your government was doomed to live short lives and you, happily, noticed it immediately. The cabinet you appointed is a typical transition toilet, for 9, 12 months and nothing more”.

The position of Congress

A question arises whether members of Congress who have a term until July 2026 are willing to leave their benches because the call for early elections includes the president, his vice president, and lawmakers as well.

Given the popular feeling of “everyone leaves”, many analysts point to members of Congress, with a worse image than Pedro Castillo himself who attempted a coup. Many of them they resist shortening their terms.

However, early elections it seems like a fact. “In principle, there would be a coincidence between the Executive and the Legislative and there would be early elections. Since there is more political will, it is almost a given that there will be early elections,” she points out. clarion for his part, Luis Benavente, director of the consulting firm Vox Populi.

While both analysts agree the ad seeks to appease social protests, Benavente believes it was an impetus stemming from fear of demonstrations. “The popular protests have been quite strong and have reached extreme levels, but I think so he rushed a little and was very scared faced with proposals that were complicated and could continue to grow”.

Beyond the agreement of the different poles on an electoral call after an attempted coup and a president deposed and arrested, there is a big difference in the accompaniment of the call for general elections.

“The problem is that the people of the left and of the extreme left, who take to the streets to cause fires and riots, want an advance of the elections but which is accompanied by a constituent assembly”points to González Izquierdo.

“And the political movements that are represented in Congress in their vast majority by the right, center-right and far-right, support an anticipation of the elections but they don’t want the Constituent Assembly. They only want minimal reforms,” he explains.

Among the points that the Peruvian right proposes to reform is the renewal for third partiesa single re-election of members of Congress, changes the authorities of the three institutions that have to do with an electoral process, e create the senatesince there is no lower house in the Peruvian Congress.

“The political forces in Congress see early elections as an opportunity. They think they can win and take control of the Executive. I think it’s not the most convenient why they are the same actorsthe same rules of the game and a totally generalized chaos,” says Luis Benavente.

Emphasize that “what comes out can be a cure worse than the diseaseLike an extremist radical like Antauro Humala, deputy (Guillermo) Bermejo or (Guido) Bellido, who are not democrats but orthodox Marxists”.

And he concludes: “Progress does not necessarily lead to improvement. I believe that the condition should be some reform of the political system, of the electoral system that guarantees a competitive and quality electoral process”.

Lima, special envoy

ap