War in Ukraine: Vladimir Putin, with Christmas stage fright

These past few weeks have been difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin, with his blunders in the war in Ukraine which he launched on February 24th. Volodimir Zelensky’s recent visit like a hero In Washington, the mood turned sour in the Kremlin, where they considered the Ukrainian’s short stay in the United States on Thursday. “it did not include any calls for peace”.

With bad news in his pocket, Putin put in the freezer the main public events scheduled for the end of the year. No state of the nation address, no annual press conference, no Christmas ceremonies in the Kremlin. There is no good news to tell.

As they acknowledge in the Kremlin, “Russia is a besieged fortress and Putin is its commander”, but the reality is that the events on the Ukrainian front are beginning to dangerously influence the political agenda.

Putin, who hasn’t suspended any of these events during the coronavirus pandemic, just presides over the events where everything is controlled down to the last detail like an award ceremony in the Kremlin or a session of the State Council, a purely advisory soviet.

Uncomfortable questions

Since 2012, Putin has clashed every year over about four hours to questions from the press. He did without fail since returning to the Kremlin after a four-year hiatus as prime minister (2008-12). This year he decided to break with tradition.

With the ongoing Ukrainian conflict, he was certain that some of the foreign correspondents’ accounts alluded to the complicated situation on the front and the humiliating Russian withdrawals from the Kharkov and Kherson regions.

It would be on the menu of the local press even uncomfortable questions about unpopular mobilization, problems with supplies and the participation of conscripts in fighting. Putin had much more to lose than to gain.

One would have to explain the inexplicable, which is that instead of Ukraine’s landslide victory and denazification, at this point in the conflict the enemy he regained the initiative and retook part of the territories annexed on paper from Moscow.

According to the newspaper “Moscow Times”, citing sources of the Presidency and the Government, the fear of a Ukrainian sabotage operation similar to those perpetrated in the Crimea and in airports on Russian territory, it has decisively tipped the balance for the cancellation of any act that could undermine the popularity of the head of state.

put in I would have made the decision myselfas the security forces cannot guarantee that such a scenario will not happen again.

violate the constitution

The Russian Constitution of 1994 force the president deliver a keynote address every year on the management of the state and on the programs for the coming year.

Putin’s previous speech before the Federal Assembly (Duma and Senate) dates back to April 2021, many now expected him to address deputies and senators with a positive program in times of sanctions and isolation.

The Kremlin did not like the fact that the state press was speculating on the dates of the speech and its spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, urged them to stop “predicting the future” in coffee grounds”, even though he himself had promised in September that the speech would be held this year.

In March 2014 Putin took advantage of the speech to announce the annexation of Crimea and in 2018 an unparalleled hypersonic weapons program capable of bypassing any Western anti-missile shield.

Although some suggest that deletion it is unconstitutionalPutin has not even consulted the decision with the president of the Constitutional Court, the Kremlin admitted this week.

According to polls, more than half of Russians support a peaceful solution to the conflict and, according to independent sources, the percentage of people who consider it Putin was wrong ordering military intervention. And is that the competition has had an impact on wages, the cost of living and travel abroad.

Elections in 2024

Putin has focused in recent weeks on the inauguration of routes, fields, icebreakers and other infrastructure. I met the mothers of soldiers –all related to the Kremlin party-but he refuses to decree an end to the mobilization, even if the Ombudsman acknowledges that he receives dozens of complaints about it every day.

The press points out that Putin has in mind the presidential elections of 2024. No one doubts that he will run for election: the constitutional reform allows him remain in power until 2036-, but for this they must first solve the Ukrainian problem. A defeat would turn the election into a referendum on his person.

Ukraine believes that Moscow prepare for a major offensive for the beginning of next year in order to change the sign of the contest. Putin’s agenda in 2023 will depend on his success.

This year, there will also be no traditional ice hockey match held every New Year’s Eve on Red Square with the participation of the country’s top officials.

EFE extension

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