Due to rising cases: could a new variant of the coronavirus emerge in China?

It will be the increase of COVID-19 in China cause the emergence of a variant of the virus? Scientists aren’t sure, but they worry about the possibility. It would be similar to the omicron variant already circulating there, either a combination of types or something else entirely, they claim.

China has a huge population and limited immunity. And those appear to be the conditions for a new variant to emerge,” said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University.

Each new infection gives the virus an opportunity to mutate, and the disease is spreading rapidly across China. The country of 1.4 billion inhabitants is already largely has abandoned its “zero COVID” policy.

While vaccination rates are generally high, booster shots are not as high, especially among the elderly. Domestically produced vaccines are less effective than Western RNA-type vaccines. And many of the vaccines were given more than a year ago, which means immunity has declined.

the variants

The result? A field conducive to the transformation of the virus.

When we see high infection rates, it’s usually followed by the emergence of a new variant, Ray said.

about three years ago, the original version of the virus has left China and spread to the rest of the world. Then came the delta variant and then omicron and its descendants, who continue to plague the world to this day.

Dr Shan-Lu Liu, who studies viruses at Ohio State University, noted that several omicron variants have been detected in China, including BF.7, which is highly skilled at evading immunity and appears to drive the new wave of infections.

Experts agree that a particularly vulnerable population like China’s could prompt the virus to change. radius he likened the virus to a boxer who “learns to dodge punches that you give them and adapts to move around them”.

The doubts

A big unknown is whether the new variant will cause more severe symptoms. Experts agree there is no reason to think the virus is getting milder over time.

Much of the mildness of symptoms over the past 6 to 12 months in many parts of the world is due to immunity acquired from vaccines or infections, not because the virus has changed, Ray said.

In China, most of the population has never been exposed to the coronavirus. Chinese vaccines are based on older technology than produces fewer antibodiescompared to Western ones.

Given this reality, it will be necessary to see whether the virus follows the same pattern of evolution in China as that which emerged in other parts of the world after the application of vaccines, commented Dr. Gagandeep Kang, a virus researcher at Christian Medical College in Vellore. India.

“Or is there a possibility that the path of evolution It’s totally different,” he added.

Source: AP

pp