Vladimir Putin believed that he would dominate Europe due to the energy crisis: the mistake could cost him dearly

Isolated in the Kremlin, ill-advised by those around him or in the throes of imperial delusions, Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to see the extent of the determination of the European Union, NATO and their member states not to allow Ukraine to be engulfed .

In light of all the evidence, the statements of the last few months and the Russian actions, Moscow expected that its great weapon, the energy supply, would be enough to divide and paralyze the Europeans. That inflation, the economic crisis and the cold that their populations would experience this winter would force them to leave the Ukraine.

Inflation is coming down, the economic crisis appears to have been averted and Europe’s gas reserves are at full capacity.

The mistake leaves Russia in its worst international position in decades. If he backs down now, Putin will have to bite the bullet. If he goes ahead, he will bleed his country economically and militarily.

If it finally decides to use nuclear weapons, as it has repeatedly threatened, it will make Russia an outcast on the planet for decades and in all likelihood it will lose what little support it has left from the great powers: China and India.

The position of the European and American governments, after 11 months of war, is even more firm and united than at the beginning of the military aggression. They started by sending only small arms and protective equipment. Grenade launchers were added, which were decisive in the first defense of Kiev and its suburbs.

Gradually anti-ship missiles, artillery, armored vehicles and now go to heavy tanks. The next steps, if the war continues and as Ukraine is already beginning to demand, will be attack helicopters, long-range missiles and fighter jets. Germany has gone from offering hulls to sending heavy tanks.

Common front despite differences

Hungary pulls its feet and sometimes allows the European sanctions to pass a few more weeks, but ends up giving in. France and Germany, despite their slight differences in approach for historical and economic reasons (Germany has lived on the supply of cheap Russian energy for decades and its diplomacy, since the 1960s, has been trying to keep Moscow in some European order ) go hand in hand. but no.

Italy has seen no change in its policy of support for Ukraine despite the change of government with the exit of Mario Draghi and the arrival of Giorgia Meloni. Spain, despite the divisions within the governing coalition tend to be more publicized than its decisions, remains steadfast in its support for European decisions and will also participate in sending Leopard 2 tanks.

If countries like Poland maintain a more proactive discourse in defense of Ukraine, in practice their position is equal to that of the others, as well as that of a Greece which traditionally, for cultural and religious reasons, maintained good relations with the Kremlin. Or from countries with such divergent foreign interests as Belgium or Slavic Bulgaria itself.

The position of Turkey

Turkey is the only NATO member state to officially stay out of arms shipments, although its Bayraktar attack drones, sold by a company run by President Erdogan’s son-in-law, were instrumental in the war’s early months. armored columns.

The war also made the United States and Europe shrink, with Canada following in the American footsteps. Washington and Brussels go hand in hand in military support and sanctions to the point that Germany ended up convincing US President Joe Biden, against the advice of the Pentagon, to send modern Abrams tanks to Ukraine in exchange for Germany sending its Leopard 2s.

Western supranational organizations follow the same rhythm and serve to maintain a permanent dialogue with the United States and to mend the bruises. NATO has recovered its essential role in European security and, hand in hand with a social democratic secretary general who has been able to maintain a discreet and very left-handed attitude in the negotiations, without putting pressure on any government but clarifying the positions of the Atlantic Alliance, regained the upper hand.

The European Commission led the passage of a dozen sanctions packages that hurt Russia’s economy by disrupting its exports and complicating its civilian and military industrial production. Its banks are virtually isolated from the rest of the world.

The High Representative, Josep Borrell, even took the opportunity to bring the United Kingdom back to the European decision-making table and in new projects.

Brussels, special

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