Western tanks arrive in Ukraine, but will they be enough?

The decision by Germany and the United States to send tanks to Ukraine, quashing months of resistance, sparked new promises across Europe on Wednesday and predictions of victory over Russia.

but they can pass months before the tanks rumble across the battlefield.

“These can help Ukraine defend itself, win and prevail as an independent nation,” he said. Jens StoltenbergSecretary General of NATO.

“It will soon be common to see them roaming the fields of Ukraine,” the British defense ministry said in a Twitter post with a photo of a German tank. Leopard 2 younChallenger 2 British made chewing through a muddy training ground in Poland.

But not so soon.

Ukrainian troops have yet to be trained to use powerful Western war machines and moving them to the conflict zone is not an easy task.

Tanks promised by Berlin and Washington won’t be delivered before spring or summer, and not in time to help Ukraine defend disputed cities near bakhmutin the east of the country, where Russian forces recently advanced in a grueling land assault.

The most immediate payoff of Wednesday’s announcements could be opening a path for a dozen other European countries to donate their own leopard 2 to Ukraine, a step that would not have been taken without the consensus of Berlin and Washington’s parallel promise to contribute its tanks M1 Abrams.

“The Abrams expedition seems to have been the key to unlocking the Leopards, which will probably arrive in Ukraine much sooner,” said Sofia Besch, an expert on European defense issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Here’s a look at what happens next.

Which countries are donating Western tanks and how many?

The largest donation comes from United States: 31 M1 Abramsenough to supply a Ukrainian military battalion.

The Abrams is one of the most sophisticated tank systems in the world, but it requires specific training, component technology and often specialized fuels to keep it reliable.

On Wednesday, US officials said it would take at least months before the Abrams could be delivered — and declined to provide further details — though other experts said it could take at least a year.

Great Britain, Germany and Poland they have promised to send 14 tankers each and London plans to deliver theirs challenger 2 within a few weeks.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has predicted that it will take three to four months for Berlin to send its Leopard 2 tanks.

Poland has indicated that it is ready to send its own Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Portugal He said he could give four Leopard 2, and Norway He said he could send eight more.

Spain, Finland and the Netherlandss have promised to send another Leopard 2, although without specifying how many.

Y France is considering giving Ukraine an unspecified number of its Leclerc tanks.

Also, Denmark said he could send 20 to Ukraine Tanks of piranhasproduced in Switzerland, once the government in Bern has agreed to its re-export, a process that went ahead last weekend after being stalled for months.

In everything, at least 105 Western tanks were engaged, at least in principle.

It’s enough?

The Ukrainian military has long said that it needs at least 300 western tanks make a difference in warfare.

That “is a large number of tanks nationwide,” according to an analysis by Wednesday janesthe London-based intelligence company.

European armies have in their possession at least 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks and hundreds of other types of Western main battle tanks.

The Russians also have thousands of tanks still available in what has become a war of rapid attritionsaid David Silbey, a Cornell University military historian who specializes in battlefield analysis.

“The West will never be able to match those numbers point-for-point,” Silbey said.

“But seen the quality advantage of the Leopard or Abrams even on the most modern Russian tank, if the West could supply 500 to 1,000 tanks, it would be a huge difference for the Ukrainians and for the war”.

When will Ukrainian troops be ready to use them?

Some will arrive at British training grounds in the coming days to begin training with the Challenger 2 tanks engaged in London this month, according to Vadym PrystaikoAmbassador of Ukraine to the UK.

Some former military officials and experts have disputed claims – mainly by the United States – that it could take months to train Ukrainian forces in the use of tanks.

They point out that the Ukrainian troops selected to crew them will already have been trained with Soviet-era tanks.

Therefore, learning to drive Leopard 2s, which run on diesel and are easier to drive than M1 Abrams, may only take three or four weeks “to achieve core competency,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies said this month.

US officials, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity on Wednesday, described a much more complicated process for the M1 Abrams, this involves training not only to operate tanks, but also to maintain them.

Part of that process will involve creating a file stable supply chain to ensure tankers receive the fuel, parts and other assistance they would need at the front.

While the Abrams may not arrive on the battlefield for “some time,” according to a US official’s description, training of Ukrainian troops to use them will begin quickly.

American troops in Germany they are already training the Ukrainian forces in a variety of combined and coordinated arms, including armored combat vehicles.

Will they have enough ammo?

Ammunition shortages have been a nightmare for the Ukrainian forces almost since the beginning of the war, as they rely on dwindling stockpiles of ammunition for their tanks and other Soviet-era weapons.

Captured Russian main battle tanks have been an essential patch for Ukraine, but the replacement parts they are often difficult to acquire, according to Ukrainian soldiers.

The Western-made tanks use munitions compatible with NATO stockpiles, meaning they could be supplied by any of the military alliance’s 30 member states or their partners.

Tanks will be delivered with some additional stocks of ammunition.

However, the war has so depleted Western arsenals that some Allies wonder if they will have enough for other possible conflicts or even for their own self-defense.

While the new Western tanks are essential to any future Ukrainian offensive operation, they can be a real deal breaker for the legions of Ukrainian supply officers.

German and American tanks have different parts and maintenance regimes, and both fire different types of ammunition than the Soviet-era tanks Ukraine currently has in its fields.

How will they get to the battlefield?

The process of delivering Western weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine was one of the most important best kept secrets from the war.

Fears of Russia attacking roads, railroads or materiel assembly points have required what officials and experts describe as stealthy convoys, usually camouflaged or shrouded in darkness, to evade attacks.

Former Western military officials and experts have described a patchwork of delivery routes, largely originating from the centers of Poland, Slovakia and Germany, which will be crucial in bringing tanks, armored fighting vehicles and huge guns to the front line.

Most of the weapons will be transported in rail cars or flatbed trucks strong enough to support their enormous weight.

The railroad is often the fastest and safest way to transport armor, experts say, as the long convoys of flatbed trucks would most likely attract Russian attention.

Getting tanks and other armored vehicles to the battlefield would take too much time, fuel and spare parts, experts say.

They would also, in essence, become a moving target for warplanesto the Russians.

The stakes are so frightening – and the concern of provoking Russia so great – that instead of being brought into the conflict zone by Western forces or contractors, Ukrainian troops must recover weapons from depots located in NATO territory.

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