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War in Ukraine: Further indications that Russia is preparing a brutal offensive later this month

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Although Volodimir Zelensky recently stated publicly this Thursday that “Russia is concentrating its forces”, for weeks the Ukrainian authorities have been detecting clues that suggest that, at some point in the coming weeks, Moscow will launch a brutal offensive with the intention of regaining the initiative from the war.

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For Ukrainians, the signs are clear. Russia has concentrated hundreds of thousands of troops in Ukraine and it is attacking dozens of places a day with an increasingly intense artillery bombardment.

And faced with this scenario, Ukrainian forces are finding it difficult to hold on to the recaptured 225-kilometer stretch of land in the east of the country pending the arrival of more weapons from the West.

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“Russia is concentrating its forces, we all know that. He wants to take revenge not only on Ukraine but also on free EuropeZelenskyj said this in a press conference with the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

According to the Ukrainian president, “the dream of a peaceful Europe can only be realized with Ukraine and only by fighting against Russia and its aggression”.

Zelensky concluded his presentation with a grim prediction of how much time he has left before Moscow launches its new initiative: “I think it has already started“, were his words.

The stage in front

Along the undulating front line in eastern Ukraine, the artillery is never silent for a long time.

The roads in Ukrainian-controlled areas are virtually empty save for tanks, armored personnel carriers and huge trucks loaded with crates of ammunition.

The few still functioning gas stations are filled with soldiers who enjoy a hot coffee before heading back to the fight.

The hospitals near the front are busy, but not overwhelmed. In one of the main hospitals there are long moments of silence until, suddenly, a parade of ambulances arrives and fills the corridors with wounded soldiers.

The heaviest fighting is centered around the city of Bakhmut, where Russian forces have slowly encircled vital supply lines for Ukrainian fighters.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine nearly a year ago, Bakhmut had a population of about 70,000. While most have already fled, the mayor, Oleksiy Reva, pleaded with the remaining 6,500 or so not to waste time and do the same.

Both sides are preparing tougher ground fighting. Moscow is focused on capturing the entire Donbass region, and Kiev aims to completely drive Russian troops out of the country.

The Russian approach changed last month after the Kremlin appointed General Valery Gerasimov to head the offensive in Ukraine.

more soldiers

Since then, Moscow has not stopped increasing its forces in the Donbass, in an attempt to break through the defensive lines which have been fortified for nine years, dating back to when Russia first fomented rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

According to Ukraine’s intelligence services, Russia now has more than 320,000 troops in the country, about double the number of troops it launched the invasion with.

Western officials and military analysts say Moscow is too it has between 150,000 and 250,000 troops in reservetraining inside Russia to join the fight at any moment.

“We see that they are preparing for more wars, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday during a visit to South Korea.

They are actively acquiring new weaponsmore munitions, by increasing its own production, but also by acquiring more weapons from other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea,” he added.

Along with the increase in troop numbers, the Russians have also increased the frequency of their bombing raids.

Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst at Rochan Consulting, which tracks Russian deployments, said shelling had jumped from an average of about 60 a day four weeks ago to more than 90 last week. Just in one day 111 Ukrainian cities were attacked.

He also stated that “the Russians are removing a lot of equipment from storage areas”.

Even so, he agreed with other analysts who say Russia will have difficulty equipping large numbers of new soldiers with tanks, armored vehicles and other effective equipment.

What will Russia do?

Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s defense ministry’s intelligence department, said the fighting would most likely escalate.

We are on the eve of a very active phasehe said in a national television appearance. “Both February and March will be intense.”

How Russia will eventually deploy its tens of thousands of new fighters is a matter of speculation.

Moscow may be preparing to open a new front across the Russian border to recapture Sumy or Kharkiv territory in northeastern Ukraine after being driven out months ago, according to Ukrainian military officials and analysts.

It could intensify fighting on the Eastern Front to divert Ukrainian resources and undermine Kiev’s ability to launch its own offensive. Or it could also be planning an offensive from occupied territory in eastern Ukraine into the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which make up Donbass.

The only consensus is that Russia is not satisfied with the territory it has conquered and remains in its ultimate goal of subjugating Ukraine. The escalation of the assault follows the same pattern that Russia has been employing for nearly a year: bleed the Ukrainian army with relentless attacks.

Oleksii Danilov, head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News on Tuesday that he did not rule out “any scenario in the next two to three weeks”.

“The major battles are yet to come,” he warned.

Source: AFP e The New York Times

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Source: Clarin

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