On the 7th (local time), Marcus Galoskas, former director of North Korea intelligence at the National Intelligence Service (NIC) under the US National Intelligence Service (DNI), sent a message urging China to play a role in relation to President Yoon Seok-yeol’s recent mention of the possibility of self-nuclear armament. It was analyzed that contains
Former official Galoskas attended an online seminar hosted by the Washington Times Foundation that day, appraising President Yoon’s remarks about possessing nuclear weapons as containing various messages, and said,
First of all, he pointed out, “Some of President Yoon’s messages seem to be directed toward China,” and “a nuclear-armed Korea is a real shock to China.”
In response, former official Galoskas analyzed that President Yoon hinted at the possibility of self-nuclear armament and sent a message that there would be strategic consequences if China does not enforce sanctions against North Korea and continues to tolerate and protect North Korea’s nuclear development and weapons tests. am.
“There seems to be a message implied that South Korea will have no choice but to develop its own capabilities unless the Chinese government fundamentally changes its policy toward North Korea to deviate from this path,” he said.
Former official Galoskas also said that President Yoon’s comments were part of a message to North Korea, which did not want to return to the path of denuclearization.
He went on to point out that President Yoon’s remarks also sent a message to the US that South Korea has very serious concerns about its nuclear deterrence and that it should take action far beyond what the US intends to do.
He also said, “There seems to be a response from (President Yoon) to the fact that there are many public opinion polls showing that there is a majority of support for nuclear possession in Korea.” That passion will be tempered.”
Former officer Galoskas said that the development of South Korea’s own nuclear capability is a “very serious problem,” but that “South Korea, at least as far as I know, is not on the path of a secret nuclear weapons program.”
In addition, Galoskas said, “The concept of deterrence on the Korean Peninsula and in Asia is fundamentally changing.”
He described it as “strategic synchronicity with three other potential adversaries armed with nuclear weapons.”
“If a conflict is initiated (either by China or North Korea), the potential for it to escalate into a conflict at the same time poses potentially serious operational and strategic challenges,” he said. We have to prepare and plan for it.”
“North Korea will challenge the credibility of deterrence by developing more accurate and capable conventional options alongside more powerful nuclear capabilities,” he said. ) will raise the level,” he predicted.
“Currently, the ROK-US alliance is very clearly focused on North Korea, but there is no political/military coordination or posture to deter or defeat China,” he said. He seems to be reluctant to do that.”
“North Korea knows for sure that it cannot survive an all-out nuclear war,” he said. “But one of the concerns is that North Korea will probably see a greater viability for unrestricted nuclear use within the next year.” said.
However, former official Galoskas predicted, “The scenario in which North Korea is most likely to use nuclear weapons would be a very limited use to raise dilemmas and constraints not only against the US response but also against China.”
He mentioned the possibility of North Korea conducting a limited nuclear test or low-level tactical nuclear attack.
Meanwhile, former U.S. State Department special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, Jeep DeTrani, expressed concern over the possibility of nuclear competition on the Korean Peninsula and emphasized the need to pressure China to act in order to deter North Korea.
He said that if South Korea possesses its own nuclear weapons, it could spark the possibility of nuclear competition in the region and affect not only the Korean economy but also the world economy, including the European Union (EU). “For too many reasons, Korea should not possess nuclear weapons. will,” he claimed.
He continued, “We shouldn’t be like bystanders. We need to make China more involved in preventing North Korea from escalating tensions.”
(Washington = News 1)
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.