Countdown to Iran’s nuclear possession… U.S.-Israeli military action is likely

International nuclear experts estimate that only weeks are left before full-scale production of nuclear weapons



Isfahan, Iran is a city with two faces. Isfahan, located 350 km southeast of the capital, Tehran, was the capital during the reign of Abbas I (1587-1629) of the Safavid dynasty of Persia. Designated as a World Heritage Site, it shows the medieval Islamic civilization as various mosques are well preserved enough to be called a huge museum. The most famous place in Isfahan is the world’s largest Imam Khomeini Square, built in 1612. This square, which used to be the square of the Shah (king), is called Imam Khomeini Square after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s successful Islamic revolution in 1979.

Iran’s latest centrifuge IR-6. [이란 대통령실]

Iran’s nuclear facilities are concentrated in Isfahan. The Nuclear Technology Research Center (NTRC) and uranium conversion facilities are located here. The uranium conversion facility converts yellow cake, an intermediate product separated from uranium ore, into uranium hexafluoride (UF6). Yellowcake is a solid material obtained by chemically processing uranium ore to increase its purity, and UF6 is a gaseous material injected into a centrifuge for uranium enrichment. At the Natanz uranium enrichment facility near Isfahan, a centrifuge turns gaseous UF6 into enriched uranium. Iran can produce more than 90% of the highly enriched uranium (HEU) needed to build a nuclear bomb.

Isfahan is also a center for missile research, development and production. Iran has been developing and producing various medium and long-range ballistic missiles, including hypersonic missiles, here. According to Missile Threat, a site affiliated with the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Iran has Sezil (range of 2,000 km), Horamshar (2,000 km), and Ghadr-110 (an improved version of Shahab-3, 1,950 km). ), Emad (1700 km), Rezvan (1400 km), and Shahab-3 (1300-2000 km). Kenneth McKinsey, former commander of the U.S. Central Forces, said, “Iran possesses about 3,000 ballistic missiles, many of which can strike Israel.” Former commander McKinsey said, “Iranian missiles are the biggest threat to security in the Middle East.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards test-fires a ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km. [IRGC]

Of particular note is that Iran is developing hypersonic missiles. Amirali Hajizadeh, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Space Force, said in an interview with state-run IRIB on November 10 last year, “We have succeeded in developing a new hypersonic missile with our own technology.” , it will take at least 10 years to develop a system to defend against these missiles.” Western media raises the possibility that Russia may have transferred hypersonic missile technology to Iran in return for supplying drones and other weapons. The hypersonic missile flies at a speed that is more than five times the speed of sound and can hit anywhere in the world within 1 to 2 hours, and it is also possible to mount nuclear weapons. Since it is difficult to detect and intercept with existing missile defense (MD) systems, it is being called a ‘game changer’. To date, the United States, Russia, China, and North Korea have deployed or are developing hypersonic missiles.

Military tensions between the two countries are rising as Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is believed to have recently carried out a self-destruct drone attack on a munitions factory in Isfahan. The Iranian Ministry of Defense said three small drones launched an attack at around 11:30 pm on January 28, but air defenses shot down one and the other two exploded on top of a warehouse, causing minor damage to the roof. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian called the attack “a cowardly attack aimed at creating unrest in Iran”. In a letter to the UN Secretary-General, Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeed Iravani, said, “The investigation found that Israel was responsible for the attempted attack.” We have a unique right to respond appropriately.”

Then, what was the target of the Israeli drone attack? The Iranian Ministry of Defense did not disclose which facilities were damaged, but Western media such as the US’New York Times (NYT) estimated that the targets were hypersonic missile production facilities or nuclear facilities. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) of the United States, citing sources who were involved in the drone attack, reported that “Israeli drones attacked Iran’s advanced weapons production facilities and appear to have achieved their purpose.” Israel’s ‘Jerusalem Post’ also reported, “The Iranian government claims it was a failure, but the drone attack on Isfahan was a phenomenal success.” Former Mossad chief Dani Yatom also revealed in an interview with Israeli military radio broadcasting that “the target of the drone attack was a hypersonic missile development facility.” Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation Mark Fitzpatrick pointed out that “Iranian scientists may have tried to develop technology to mount a nuclear bomb on a hypersonic missile.”

Taken together, it can be assumed that Israel carried out drone strikes to prevent Iran from mounting nuclear weapons on hypersonic missiles or ballistic missiles. The Mossad has been waging a ‘shadow war’ to stop Iran from developing and possessing nuclear weapons. Shadow warfare is when a country hides its involvement and attacks its facilities or assassinates key figures without leaving any evidence. The Mossad assassinated Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Park Lizadeh, in 2020, and launched a cyber attack on the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in 2021, causing a massive power outage and destroying a centrifuge.

Iran is already producing and stockpiling highly enriched uranium that can be used to build a nuclear bomb. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Secretary-General Rafael Grossi said in a speech to the European Parliament held in Brussels, Belgium on January 25, “Iran possesses 70 kg of enriched uranium with a concentration of more than 60% and 1000 kg of uranium with a concentration of 20%, respectively.” . In light of the fact that 15 to 20 kg of uranium enriched by more than 90% is required to produce one nuclear bomb, Secretary-General Grossi warned, “Considering Iran’s uranium reserves, it is enough to make several nuclear bombs.” The NYT said, “Iran’s uranium enrichment program was overshadowed for a while by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-China conflict and confrontation.” Right before it goes off,” he pointed out.

International nuclear experts estimate that the so-called ‘dash time’, the time it takes to start producing nuclear weapons in earnest, is only a few weeks, considering Iran’s nuclear facilities and uranium conversion capabilities. Iran is operating a state-of-the-art centrifuge IR-6 installed at the Natanz enrichment facility. IR-6 is 10 times faster than the existing first-generation centrifugal separator IR-1. Meanwhile, negotiations between the West and Iran to restore the nuclear deal have stalled. The two sides are in a tense confrontation over the withdrawal of the designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, the provision of guarantees against reinstatement of sanctions, and inspections of undeclared nuclear facilities. For this reason, even President Biden said on November 4 of last year, “The nuclear negotiations with Iran are over.”

A U.S. B-52H strategic bomber flies escorted by U.S. and Israeli air forces. [CENTCOM]

The US and Israel are preparing for the worst. From January 23 to 26, the two countries conducted the largest-ever joint military exercise in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. About 140 aircraft, 12 warships, and 7,500 troops (6,400 US soldiers and 1,100 Israeli soldiers) were mobilized for this exercise. F-35 and F-18 fighters, B-52H strategic bombers, and aerial refueling fighters, including the George Bush nuclear aircraft carrier strike group from the United States, and F-35, F-15, and F-16 fighters from Israel participated, respectively. The Air Forces of the two countries conducted long-range bombing exercises together, refueling in the air and firing live ammunition. The U.S. mobilization of B-52H strategic bombers and aerial refueling tankers for joint training with Israel is of considerable military significance. This is because the US can bomb Iranian nuclear facilities with B-52H strategic bombers or provide fuel with aerial refueling for Israeli fighters launching air strikes on Iran. The joint military drill of the two countries is interpreted as preparation for an airstrike on Israel’s nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian retaliatory strikes.

The US government is taking a tougher stance on Iran than ever before. In fact, US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln visited Jerusalem on January 30th and emphasized that he would do his best to block Iran’s nuclear possession in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Minister Blincoln said, “President Biden clearly emphasized that all options to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons are on the table.” In addition, Prime Minister Netanyahu, who launched the most right-wing government in Israeli history at the beginning of the new year, has shown his will to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. In this context, there is a prospect that if Iran shows an intention to cross the red line (development or possession of nuclear weapons), the possibility that the US and Israel will stop it by force cannot be ruled out.

《This article
Weekly Donga

Published in issue 1376》

Janghoon Lee International Affairs Analyst [email protected]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.