The United States Geological Survey (USGS) forecasts that additional aftershocks with a magnitude of 7.8 or greater may occur in Turkiye.
On the 13th (local time), the USGS said that after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred on the 6th in Turkiye, hundreds of aftershocks occurred, and presented three scenarios that could occur here within a few days.
The worst-case scenario is when an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 or higher occurs in Kahramanmarash, southeastern Turkey, where the earthquake struck. The USGS considered the possibility of a large-scale earthquake of magnitude 7.8 or higher to occur in the Turkiye region as less than 1%, but with a very small probability, if such an earthquake occurs, it will trigger an aftershock sequence of its own, destroying the area outside of the area already affected by the earthquake. indicated that it would have a negative impact.
The second scenario presented by the USGS is when one or two aftershocks with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater and 7.8 or less occur. The USGS considered this possibility to be around 10%, in which case the earthquake damage would expand and the aftershock sequence could be temporarily reactivated.
The highest case scenario is when the frequency of aftershocks continues to decrease and the magnitude does not exceed 7.0. The USGS estimated a 90 percent chance that medium-to-large aftershocks between 5.0 and 6.0 in magnitude would occur one after another and affect vulnerable structures.
Meanwhile, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurred in the southern border area of Turkiye at 4:00 am on the 6th. Hundreds of aftershocks followed, including a magnitude 7.5 earthquake.
By the 13th, the 7th day after the earthquake occurred, the number of deaths reached 29,605 in Turkey and 4,574 in Syria, for a total of 34,179 people. There are also estimates, and the scale of damage is expected to increase like a snowball.
The USGS raised the possibility that the cumulative number of deaths will exceed 100,000 by 2 percentage points from 24% to 26%.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.