Earthquake in Turkey shakes the strongest man in power

GAZIANTEP, Turkey — In 1999, a powerful earthquake struck northwestern Turkey, killing more than 17,000 people, exposing government incompetence and fueling an economic crisis. Amidst the turmoil, a charismatic young politician capitalized on public anger to become prime minister in 2003.

That politician was Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Now, as president, Erdogan faces challenges similar to those that ousted his predecessors, posing what may be the greatest threat to his political future in his two decades in power.

Last week the deadliest earthquake to hit Turkey in nearly a century it has killed at least 35,000 people, and countless more bodies are still buried under the rubble. The earthquake struck after a year of persistently high inflation that impoverished Turkish households, leaving many with very little resources to recover.

Analysts noted that the aftermath of the earthquake highlighted how much Erdogan has reshaped the Turkish state. His detractors accuse him of leading the country towards autocracy limiting civil rights and undermining the independence of state institutions, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Central Bank. Furthermore, in a series of actions aimed at weakening his opponents and centralizing their control, he has restricted the powers of institutions such as the Army (which could have contributed to a better response to the earthquake), while at the same time filling other institutions with its supporters.

Erdogan acknowledged on Friday that his government’s initial response to the disaster had been slow and that the anger of survivors was growing, a sentiment that could hamper his bid to stay in power in elections scheduled for May 14. Many people also strongly wondered if the poor quality of construction was partly responsible for the deaths and destruction.

“I’ve been voting for this government for 20 years and I’m telling all the people I’m very angry,” said Mikail Gul, 53, who lost five family members in a building collapse. “I will never forgive them.”

The president, who faced severe criticism in 2021 for the government’s failure to control destructive fires, has long described himself as a leader who is out of touch with ordinary citizens. In these last days, they visited communities heavily affected by the earthquake. Dressed in black and with a grim face, he visited the wounded, comforted those who had lost their homes, and stressed the extent of the crisis.

“We are facing one of the biggest disasters in our history,” he said on a visit to Adiyaman province on Friday. “It is a reality that we have not been able to intervene as quickly as we would have liked.”

7.8-magnitude earthquake – the most destructive to hit Turkey in decades – and hundreds of aftershocks they shook buildings along a 400-kilometer strip to the south, destroyed thousands and caused billions of dollars in damage. In Syria, on the other side of the border, nearly 4,000 have been killed so far, a figure believed to be on the rise.

“This is the biggest disaster Turkey has ever seen and will inevitably generate a backlash against the government,” said Sinan Ülgen, director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank. “But a lot will depend on how efficiently you can meet the needs of the affected population.”

The Turkish government has launched an all-out relief effort and has dispatched 141,000 aid and relief workers to search for the dead and wounded, distribute food, blankets and diapers, and pitch tents for the tens of thousands of homeless people, many of whom are sleeping. by car to ward off the sub-zero winter cold.

However, many survivors have expressed frustration with the government’s poor response and they said the state was totally absent in the first moments after the event, leaving residents seeking refuge and dragging trapped loved ones from collapsed buildings.

It is very likely that the lack of trained rescue teams and heavy machinery during the crucial first days increased the death toll because many people who could have been rescued in those moments were not rescued.

According to the residents, when the government agencies arrived, it appeared that their equipment was insufficient and that they could not coordinate the efforts of the volunteers who were already trying to help the survivors.

During his two decades as prime minister and president, Erdogan has called for changes in how Turkey is run to protect it from a range of internal and external threats, including military coups and terrorist groups.

Erdogan has also limited the functions of the armywhich played an important role in the government’s response to the 1999 earthquake.

Turker Erturk, a retired admiral who served as commander at the earthquake relief center, said in an interview that the army responded quickly. But in the intervening years, the Erdogan government had curtailed those powers and the military had stopped planning and training him, he said.

According to Erturk, after Monday’s earthquake, the government summoned the army only after the rebuke of the population.

“That’s because it’s a one-man government”commented. “In authoritarian governments, those decisions are made from the top and orders are expected from him.”

On Friday, the Army said on Twitter that its soldiers have been helping “since day one” and have now deployed more than 25,000 soldiers. But their presence has not been evident in many of the hardest-hit areas.

Leading the government’s response to the quake is the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, which critics say Erdogan has overcrowded supporters and given too much power at the expense of other organizations such as the Turkish Red Crescent.

The earthquake also led to increased scrutiny over the government’s use of building codes to keep buildings from collapsing, and some people in the area angrily wondered whether shoddy construction and shoddy contractors could be blamed for at least some of deaths.

After the 1999 earthquake, Turkey tightened its building codes to make buildings more resistant to earthquakes. But in the area devastated by the recent earthquake, there are areas where some buildings survived, while others nearby, some relatively new, collapsed altogether, raising questions as to whether any contractors had saved money.

In response to this statement, the Justice Ministry on Saturday ordered the installation of officials from the ten provinces affected by the earthquake investigative units of the so-called seismic crimes and to appoint prosecutors to file suits against all “builders and perpetrators” of the collapse of buildings that do not comply with existing codes.

For example, Yasar Coskun, the builder of a 12-story building that collapsed completely in the hard-hit province of Hatay, was arrested on Friday at an Istanbul airport as he tried to board a flight to Montenegro. Dozens of people are believed to have died when this building collapsed.

The earthquake caused billions of dollars in damage and the government plans to call for another billion at a time when the state budget is already tight.

Before the earthquake, Erdogan’s government disbursed billions of dollars in new spending to cushion the blow of high inflation on citizens ahead of the elections, an injection of cash that some economists say could send the country into a recession this year.

In addition to the economic hardships, the earthquake will intensify the suffering of the Turks, and not in a way that makes them feel they are helping an important cause, said Selim Koru, an analyst at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation. .

“By its very nature, this comes out of the blue and makes people even more despondent, and not just in the earthquake zone,” he said. “The economy will suffer and I’m not sure if that makes sense for that suffering.”

The proximity of the earthquake a presidential and parliamentary elections to be held by 18 June could leave room for other challenges.

On Thursday, Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed Turkish official as saying the destruction caused by the earthquake posed “serious difficulties” for voting. It was the first sign that the government might want to postpone them.

There is a coalition of six opposition parties trying to overthrow Erdogan and that it intends to strengthen the economy and recover the independence of state institutions. They have already begun to make an election issue out of the earthquake response.

But even some angry voters continue to trust Erdogan.

“We failed this exam,” Ismail Ozaslan, a 58-year-old long-haul truck driver, told us at a Gaziantep park where part of his family was crammed into a tent. “We are like patients left to die. There is no coordination.”

But the reproaches of local and national authorities, which he accused of corruption and negligence, did not reach Erdogan.

“It is like a building that has a strong roof but whose pillars are rotten”, he has declared. “We have no alternative but Erdogan. I hope God gives him long life.”

c.2023 The New York Times Society