27 aftershocks… Coastal Residents Evacuation Advisory
Possibility of snowballing deaths
At least 47,000 people were killed in a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and northern Syria on the 6th, and another 6.3-magnitude earthquake occurred in Antakya, southeastern Turkey on the 20th.
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the European Mediterranean Seismic Center (EMSC), an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 occurred at around 8:04 am on the same day in the northwestern border of Syria, about 16 kilometers from Antakya. Tremors were felt in nearby Lebanon, Egypt and Greece, and there were 27 aftershocks that evening alone, Reuters reported. The Turkish Disaster Management Authority (AFAD) has also advised residents along the coast of Antakya to evacuate, saying the earthquake could cause sea levels to rise by up to 50 cm.
The earthquake killed at least six people and injured 294 others in Turkiye alone as of the 21st, according to Reuters. As with the strong earthquake on the 6th, it is certain that the number of casualties will increase as the scale of damage has not been accurately calculated.
Russian state news agency TASS reported that five people were killed in Syria alone, citing Sky News and others in the UK. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 470 people were injured. Electricity and telephones were also cut off in Turkey and parts of Syria.
The possibility of a snowball-like increase in the number of deaths from the earthquake has also been raised. On the 21st, the USGS estimated the probability that 100 to 1,000 people would die from this earthquake at 46% and the probability that 1,000 to 10,000 people would die at 29%. The probability of reaching 10,000 to 100,000 was also predicted at 5%. The USGS estimated on the 20th that the economic damage caused by the earthquake would reach up to 1% of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The USGS also raised the probability of more than 100,000 deaths from a strong earthquake on the 6th from 24% to 25%. The probability of 10,000 to 100,000 was also raised from 35% to 36%. The scale of economic damage is projected to be up to 10% of Turkey’s GDP. AFAD also announced that “many people are still missing due to the earthquake on the 6th, and the number of deaths will increase rapidly.”
Cairo =
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.