Putin announces suspension of participation in the Nuclear Reduction Treaty
NYT “Declaring the Virtual End of the Age of Disarmament”
U.S.-Russia North Korea-China prospects for accelerated development
G7 Joint Statement “Russia to return to New Start”
The nuclear disarmament agreement between the US and Russia, which was established after the end of the Cold War, faced the crisis of collapse when Russian President Vladimir Putin suddenly announced that he would stop participating in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). As President Putin made it clear that he intends to link the nuclear threat to the war in Ukraine, there is great concern that a new agreement to replace the’New Start’, which expires in 2026, has become virtually impossible. This is expected to intensify the global nuclear arms race as China, North Korea, and Iran accelerate their nuclear development, as well as the U.S. and Russia each increasing the size of nuclear warheads deployed.
| US-Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START Treaty, New Start) |
| A nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia, which entered into force in 2011, limiting the number of strategic nuclear warheads deployed in both countries to 1,550 and allowing mutual on-site verification 18 times per year. |
In his State of the Union address on the 21st (local time), three days before the first year of the war in Ukraine, President Putin said, “I will stop participating in New Start. If the US tests a nuclear weapon, Russia needs to test it too.” New Start is a follow-up agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed between the United States and the United States in 1991. It contains content to reduce the number of nuclear warheads deployed by the US and Russia to less than 1,550 each and inspect each other’s nuclear facilities.
His remarks are interpreted as meaning that he will stop allowing nuclear inspections during the treaty, not a complete destruction of New Start. “Russia will continue to notify the United States of its plan to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) in accordance with the treaty,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement. According to CNN, Russia also notified the United States of its plan to test launch the world’s largest ICBM ‘Sarmat’ on the 20th, when US President Joe Biden visited Kiiu, Ukraine.
President Putin’s declaration to suspend participation in New Start is interpreted as an attempt to pressure the West, including the United States, to end arms support for Ukraine and to calm public opinion tired of the protracted war. When asked about the conditions for returning to the treaty, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called for a change in attitude from the West, saying, “Everything depends on the West.” He said that if Russia wants to return, we should also discuss what to do with the French and British nuclear weapons deployed to target Russia. The Chinese government also expressed hope that the two sides would appropriately resolve their differences through constructive dialogue and negotiations. The intention is that the West, including the United States, must accept Russia’s demands to a certain extent.
As the ‘mutual nuclear inspection’, which is the core of the New Start, is suspended, it seems inevitable that the disarmament system that has been maintained since the end of the Cold War will be damaged. The U.S. State Department pointed out in a recent report submitted to Congress that “we cannot be certain of Russia’s announcement that it has reduced the number of nuclear warheads.” It is also difficult to expect discussions on a new disarmament agreement to replace the New Start, which will end in three years. The New York Times (NYT) pointed out on the 21st, “This is a signal that the era of disarmament that lasted for decades is effectively over.”
If New Start loses its effectiveness, both the US and Russia are likely to embark on a massive nuclear warhead build-up. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) predicted in a report earlier this month that the number of nuclear warheads in the United States will increase from 1,670 to 3,570 and that of Russia from 1,674 to 2,629 when the New Start ends.
The Biden administration expects that China, which is competing for supremacy with the United States, will also increase its nuclear warheads from the current 400 to more than 1,500 by 2035. It is highly likely that the spread of the nuclear arms race among countries that possess and develop nuclear weapons, such as North Korea, Iran, India, and Pakistan, will follow suit. The NYT said, “North Korea has test-fired an ICBM, and Iran is making rapid progress in producing weapons-grade nuclear fuel. The world is facing an era of explosive growth in new nuclear arsenals.”
The foreign ministers of the seven major countries (G7) issued a joint statement on the 21st and said, “We condemn Russia’s irresponsible nuclear-related remarks.” North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged a quick return to New Start, saying, “The entire arms control design has been lifted.”
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Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.