War in Ukraine: The head of the Russian Wagner Group, a man of great ambitions and many enemies

The ambitious and provocative Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner paramilitary group, which was very active in the war in Ukraine, shows exceptional political aspirations that excite him deep enmities in the Russian elite.

Long in the shadows, Yevgeny Prigozhin emerged last fall to assume authorship of the Wagner group, declare military victories in Ukraine and showcase his farms. troll or his art of manipulating opinions, especially in Africa.

Loudly, Yevgeny Prigozhin established himself in the Russian political landscape.

A climb that indicates the fragility of the system

Never before has an unofficial agent acquired such importance in Russia’s international action, say analysts consulted by AFP, who at the same time underline the fragility of this promotion.

“He is praised and demonized at the same time“And his actual ties to President Vladimir Putin are the subject of all sorts of fantasies,” says Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert on Russia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

Each success promises him a bright future and each flop heralds his imminent downfall, but “as yet, none of these accounts are entirely realistic,” he says.

“That’s what we call it an entrepreneur of violence‘, a figure who comes from a criminal background and who has always used rhetoric and physical violence as a means to advance his interests,” explains Maxime Audinet, from the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military School (IRSEM) in Paris.

Prigozhin, a businessman he was nine years in prison for robbery and fraudhe is known for his verbal outbursts.

His interests clearly reach into the political sphere.

“Try to set foot in the space of national-populism, immersed in internal struggles since the death in April 2022 of Vladimir Zhirinovski, historical leader of the LDPR”, the ultra-nationalist party, indicates Audinet.

“This part of the Russian political spectrum is potentially very promising for the post-Putin era,” he adds.

Powerful but with a precarious status

Prigozhin has denied wanting to mount a movement, but gives himself a place that doesn’t necessarily correspond to reality. He only has indirect access to Putinwhom he has never worked directly with nor is he a friend.

“He may have carte blanche from Putin in his area of ​​​​responsibility (…), but outside of it he is politically helpless“Says Stanova.

“He doesn’t belong to the first circle of the Putin regime,” agrees Audinet. But “it’s possible that his growing notoriety has made him go up in smoke. Despite his unofficial status, the former Leningrad criminal has become an inescapable actor,” he adds.

Indeed, Wagner achieved military victories in Ukraine and progress in Africa: the group has established itself in the Central African Republic and in Mali, even if this country denies it. He has also performed in Mozambique and flirts with Burkina Faso.

Inevitably, he also mobilizes multiple enemies while allowing himself to regularly discredit the army, its general staff and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

He asked the Russians on Wednesday put pressure on the army to supply its men with ammunition. “There are bullets. But it is necessary for politicians, bastards, scum to sign” so that they are handed over to Wagner, said the businessman.

For Peter Rough, of the Hudson Institute in Washington, “Prigozhin allows Putin to spread discontent through a third party” towards the army, which has been in trouble in Ukraine for a year.

And it undoubtedly benefits from the financial support of the Russian state.

But “his conflict with the defense ministry is systemic. He receives huge sums from the state, at the expense of the military,” Russian investigative journalist Denis Korotkov told AFP.

“He has no friends and almost no allies.” in the military, says this expert.

Wednesday’s statements testify that he “does not have a direct line of communication with Putin or that this line is cut off”.

His recruitment for weeks of mercenaries in prisons he infuriated justice. And you’re also starting to be on the intelligence services’ radar.

Prigozhin dares everything. But “their relationship with the state is informal, therefore fragile, and could be interrupted without warning,” Stanovaya believes.

Of the same opinion is Peter Rough: “What is true today, may not be true tomorrow. It is impossible to predict the outcome of Russian power struggles“.

Source: AFP