Putin Declares Strengthening ‘Three Major Nuclear Forces’… Demonstrates unwillingness to compete head-to-head with nuclear weapons

Putin’s closest aides threaten Russia will disappear if Ukraine loses war

The Russian RS-28 Sarmat (NATO name SS-30 Satan 2) is the most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the world. It is a multi-warhead missile with a length of 35.3 m, a diameter of 3 m, a weight of 208 tons, a maximum speed of Mach 20, a maximum range of 18,000 km, and up to 15 megaton nuclear warheads. The nuclear warhead is 2,000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945. One Sarmat can destroy France (544,000 km2) or the US state of Texas (696,000 km2). Russia’s naming of this ICBM as Sarmat is closely related to Ukraine. Sarmat refers to the people who ruled the whole of Ukraine and southern Russia in the 6th to 4th centuries B.C. It can be seen that the ICBM was named Sarmat to show its will to subjugate Ukraine like the Sarmatians who ruled the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin took out the ‘Sarmat Card’ and blatantly threw a bet on the West, including the United States. In a commemorative speech in front of 200,000 people gathered at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow on February 23, the “Day of Defender of the Fatherland,” Putin said, “We will pay more attention to strengthening the Nuclear Triad. He said, “We will deploy Sarmat within this year.” The three major nuclear forces are ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers. Russia is in the process of replacing its existing ICBM, the R-36M (NATO name SS-18 Satan), with the Sarmat.

President Putin specifically mentioned Sarmat among the three major nuclear powers because the US fears ICBMs the most. Sarmat, a three-stage missile that uses liquid fuel and is launched from a silo, can mount a state-of-the-art hypersonic warhead (HGV), which can hit anywhere on the planet within an hour. In particular, Sarmat can penetrate the US Missile Defense (MD) system. On April 20 last year, Russia first test-fired a Sarmat missile from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the northern Arkhangelsk region and accurately hit a target on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Far East, 6,000 kilometers away.

The ‘Day of Defenders of the Fatherland’, which President Putin gave a speech, also has a significant meaning for the Russian people. ‘Defender of the Fatherland Day’ is the day on February 23, 1918, when the ‘Red Army’ of Russia, then the Soviet Union, won the first victory over the German army in World War I. Originally called ‘Red Army Day’, it was renamed ‘Soviet Army and Navy Day’ in 1949, and in 2002, it was changed to the current name by order of President Putin and designated as a Russian national holiday.

Another reason why President Putin mentioned Sarmat on the ‘Day of Defender of the Fatherland’ can be seen as announcing his will to win the war in Ukraine without fail. The Russian army invaded Ukraine on February 24 last year under the name of ‘special military operation’, but has been struggling so far. Russia forcibly annexed the eastern regions of Ukraine, Donbass (Donetsk and Luhansk Regions) and southern regions (Zaporizhya and Kherson Regions), but fierce battles are being waged in the rest of the region due to strong resistance from Ukraine. In addition, the West is imposing various sanctions on Russia while providing various weapons to Ukraine.

The Russian military has attacked Ukraine with various missiles and Iranian-made drones while deploying 300,000 reservists recruited under President Putin’s partial mobilization order, but the situation is increasingly unfavorable. In particular, the Russian military is facing a crisis in which even the Crimean Peninsula, which was forcibly annexed in 2014, could be taken away as various conventional weapons such as tanks are destroyed or exhausted. For this reason, it can be interpreted that President Putin expressed his willingness to fight head-to-head with the West, which has supported Ukraine, using nuclear power, including Sarmat, as a “base of drainage.”

The only thing that can be said to be Russia’s superiority in military power against the West, including the United States, is nuclear power. President Putin’s announcement in his State of the Union address on February 21 that he would suspend participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the United States can also be seen as a preemptive measure to strengthen nuclear forces. The contents of the New Start agreement signed by the US and Russia in 2010 are to reduce the number of nuclear warheads and the number of nuclear weapons delivery vehicles to 700 or less, and to conduct periodic inspections of nuclear facilities between the two countries 18 times a year. The treaty has been extended once and remains in effect until February 2026, but negotiations for further extensions have stalled since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. President Putin effectively abolished New Start under the pretext that Russia cannot inspect US nuclear weapons. Accordingly, there is an evaluation in the international community that ‘the era of nuclear competition is coming again from the era of nuclear disarmament’. The New York Times of the United States pointed out that “Russia’s decision this time is a sign that the decades-long era of nuclear disarmament is effectively over.”

Russia is the number one nuclear power in the world in terms of the number of nuclear warheads. According to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates, as of February last year, Russia possesses a total of 5,977 nuclear warheads, most of which are strategic. Among them, 1,500 of them have not yet been dismantled, 2,889 are stored as a reserve, and 1,588 nuclear warheads are actually deployed. In addition, 812 of the 1,588 deployed in combat are for ICBMs, 576 for SLBMs, and 200 for strategic bombers. As for carriers, Russia has 400 ICBMs, which can carry 1,185 nuclear warheads. In addition, Russia operates 10 nuclear submarines capable of carrying up to 800 nuclear warheads and possesses 60 to 70 strategic bombers.

On the other hand, the US has 5428 nuclear warheads. Of these, 1,964 are retired but not dismantled, 3,708 are stored as a reserve, and 1,644 strategic nuclear weapons are actually deployed. William Alberk, director of strategy, technology and disarmament at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in the UK, claims that “both countries can increase the number of nuclear warheads deployed to 4,000 at any time.” Daryl Kimball, executive director of the U.S. Arms Control Association, said, “If the two countries do not agree on strategic nuclear weapons limits by 2026, when the New Start expires, the restrictions on the world’s two largest nuclear weapon states will disappear.” It is to open up,” he pointed out.

A Russian Borei-A class strategic nuclear submarine test-fires a Bulava missile. [러시아 국방부]

It is clear that Russia will focus its efforts on strengthening its three major nuclear forces in accordance with President Putin’s strong instructions. In the case of ICBMs, in addition to Sarmat, Russia is developing and deploying the RS-24 (NATO name SS-29) Yars, which is launched with three-stage solid fuel. The YARS, which can be launched from a mobile launch pad, has a range of 11,000 km. With a length of 23 m, a width of 2 m, a weight of 47.2 tons, and a maximum flight speed of Mach 20, YARS can load 4 to 10 multi-nuclear warhead missiles (MIRV), each of which has 53 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The Bulava missile for SLBM has a maximum range of 10,000 km and can carry 10 nuclear warheads per missile. The power of the warhead is 12.5 times that of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.

Russia’s Borei-A class strategic nuclear submarine, the Vladimir anti-aircraft submarine, departs. [러시아 해군]

In particular, Russia has been focusing its efforts on the development of the Borei-class strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN). Starting with the actual deployment of the Borei-class submarine Yuri Dolgoruky to the North Sea Fleet in 2013, Russia has deployed the Alexander Nevsky and the Vladimir Monomakh to the Pacific Fleet, respectively. In addition, in 2020, the improved Borei-A class Vladimir anti-aircraft ship was deployed to the North Sea Fleet, and in 2021, the Oleg anti-aircraft ship was deployed to the Pacific Fleet, respectively, and in January of this year, the Generalissimus Suvorov was additionally deployed to the Pacific Fleet. The submarine, which is 170 m long and 13.5 m wide and has an underwater displacement of 24,000 tons, can carry up to 16 Bulava missiles. Russia will also deploy the Alexander III in the near future.

Russian next-generation strategic bomber PAK-DA conceptual diagram. [러시아 국방부]

The strategic bombers operated by the Russian Air Force consist of the Tu-95MS, Tu-160 and Tu-22M. The Russian Air Force has begun modernization of these strategic bombers and is accelerating the development of the next-generation strategic bomber, PAK-DA, by producing prototypes. Equipped with stealth capabilities, PAK-DA can mount advanced electronic warfare systems, long-range cruise nuclear missiles, and conventional precision-guided weapons. The air-based hypersonic Kinzal missile has a range of 2,000 km and a maximum speed of Mach 10, and can be loaded with nuclear warheads and can be mounted on MIG-31K or Tu-22M strategic bombers. The sea-based hypersonic Zircon missile has a maximum speed of Mach 8 and a range of 1,000 km, can be equipped with a nuclear warhead, and can be launched from a destroyer.

It can be seen that President Putin’s intention to strengthen the three major nuclear forces is to use nuclear weapons as a last resort in the event of a worst-case scenario. It is in the same context that President Putin’s closest aide, Vice Chairman of the National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, threatened that “Russia will disappear if the Ukrainian war is defeated,” and that “Russia’s survival is the survival of human civilization.” If left unchecked, the greatest tragedy of mankind, a nuclear war, may occur.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) visited the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on February 23, ‘Day of Defenders of the Fatherland’. [크렘린궁]

《This article
Weekly Donga

It was published in issue 1379》

Janghoon Lee International Affairs Analyst [email protected]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.