The West has been trying to isolate Russia. it did not work

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the West formed what seemed like an overwhelming global coalition:

141 countries backed a UN measure calling for Russia’s unconditional withdrawal.

By contrast, Russia seemed isolated.

North Korea it was one of only four countries that backed Russia and rejected the move.

But the West has never conquered as much of the world as it first seemed.

Others 47 countries abstained or did not vote, inclusive India AND China.

Many of those “neutral” nations have since lent to economic or diplomatic support Fundamental for Russia.

And even some of the nations that initially agreed to denounce Russia see the war as someone else’s problem, and have since begun to take sides. more neutral.

A year later, the situation is increasingly clear:

while the core of the Western coalition remains remarkably strong, it has never convinced the rest of the world to isolate Russia.

Instead of splitting in two, the world has become fragmented.

A large part of the center regards the Russian invasion primarily as a European and American problem.

Instead of seeing it as an existential threat, these countries mostly focus on protect their interests amid the economic and geopolitical turmoil caused by the invasion.

The current landscape evokes the many neutral states of the Cold War.

But the world is now even more interconnected.

The scale and complexity of global communications, economic and security ties offer far more opportunities for Western rivals to gain influence.

Last week the UN General Assembly passed another resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from the territory of Ukraine, but China, South Africa, India and many countries in the South continued to abstain, emphasizing their distancing dand what they consider the war of the West.

Here’s how Russia takes advantage of it.

evade sanctions

At first it seemed that Western economic sanctions could undermine Moscow’s ability to continue the war.

A US-led campaign involving 37 countries has shaken the foundations of Russia’s financial system by freezing its foreign reserves and attacking its major banks.

Sanctions have blocked key imports such as spare parts for aircraft and semiconductors for electronics.

And hundreds of companies have voluntarily stopped doing business in Russia, leaving ordinary Russians without shops. Apple or Netflix subscriptions.

But the sanctions have not been as devastating as the West had hoped. A handful of countries closed the gap, boosting exports to Russia well above prewar levels, according to data compiled by the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a Washington nonprofit. Exports from other countries declined when the war began but have since reversed the trend.

China and Turkey alone accounted for most of the export decline.

Chinese passenger cars have replaced the previous Russian supply from Western manufacturers. China has also exported more machinery and semiconductors. Other goods produced by multinationals that can no longer be exported directly to Russia now pass through post-Soviet states.

Even as Turkey has sold arms to Ukraine, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has opened up a greater flow of goods to Russia, breaching the Western sanctions levee.

“We have always maintained a balanced policy between Ukraine and Russia,” Erdogan said in September, six months after Turkey voted with the United States to denounce the Russian invasion.

(END CUT OPTIONAL.) Overall, after initially declining after the invasion, trade levels have rebounded because there are still enough countries willing to trade with Russia.

Sanctions could continue to be devastating for Russia in the long run. They are already curbing foreign investment and starting to dry up government coffers. Restrictions on oil trade have forced Russia to cut production. And reorienting the country’s pipeline infrastructure towards Asia will take years.

But while Russia’s economy isn’t thriving, it is strong enough to sustain war. The International Monetary Fund forecast last month that the Russian economy would grow by 0.3% this year, a marked improvement on its previous estimate of a 2.3% contraction.

Purchase of Weapons and Components The United States and its partners have shipped increasingly lethal weapons and military equipment directly to Ukraine. And they have tried to cut off Russia’s supply of military hardware by imposing export controls that prevent many companies from selling critical technology to Russia.

The weapons have helped Ukraine surprise the world and keep the much larger Russian army at bay. At least 40 countries have provided military aid to Ukraine, either by sending offensive weapons or providing other forms of military aid.

But the attempt to deprive Russia of military equipment has been less successful. Russia has also found help here. North Korea has sent “significant numbers” of artillery shells to Russia, the United States has said. Iran has supplied Russia with “kamikaze” drones that Moscow has deployed to attack civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

(OPTIONAL CLIPPING BEGINS.) And other countries, including China, have continued to supply Russia with dual-use items, such as microchips that go into military equipment.

To be sure, analysts say Russia appears to be facing a shortage of precision weapons, such as cruise missiles, which require high-tech equipment. And Russian soldiers report a lack of night vision equipment and frontline surveillance drones.

Taking advantage of the global ambivalence

Many world leaders don’t particularly like the idea of ​​one country invading another. But many of them also don’t like anyone to confront the United States.

In Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, many governments with strong official ties to the United States and Europe do not see war as a global threat. Instead, they positioned themselves as neutral spectators or referees, retaining as much flexibility as possible.

ASIA Reaction to the invasion was mixed in Asia, where more than a third of countries refused to condemn Russia in the initial UN vote. While most of America’s allies have taken sides, Russia has been able to capitalize on trade relationships and favorable public opinion that date back to the days of the Cold War.

Early in the invasion, the US asked India to buy less oil from Russia. Since then, he has softened his stance, as India has continually defied alignment with one side or the other. As tensions rise along India’s border with China, experts said India doesn’t think it can jeopardize its relationship with Russia, a key source of arms.

Gulf countries voted alongside the West to condemn Russia, but have since largely sought to be seen as neutral arbiters.

UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed has traveled to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin and has said he wants to find a diplomatic solution. He also offered an Abu Dhabi airport for Brittney Griner’s prisoner exchange.

Dubai, in particular, has become a powerhouse for the Russians, a haven for oligarchs and pro-Kremlin elites where Western sanctions cannot reach. And Saudi Arabia has said it must pursue its own interests, even if it causes friction in its long-standing relationship with the United States.

AFRICA Nearly half of African countries abstained or abstained from voting to condemn Russia, suggesting a growing reluctance in many nations to accept an American narrative of right and wrong. Russia has won friends thanks to her relentless propaganda and power, and more and more countries are hiring Russian mercenaries and buying Russian weapons.

In South Africa, ties to Russia go back to Soviet support for ending apartheid. Its leaders saw an opportunity to align more closely with Russia while closing trade gaps left by Europe and the United States. But, like many other African countries, South Africa seems careful to balance its growing ties with Russia while maintaining a relationship with the West.

THE AMERICAS

Latin America, with its longstanding relationship with the United States, voted overwhelmingly with its northern neighbor to condemn Russia. But in recent months, cracks have begun to appear.

Colombia recently rejected a US request to supply arms to Ukraine. And when visited by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last month, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva declined to speak out in support of Ukraine, saying: ‘I think the reason for the war between Russia and Ukraine should be clearer’ .

(THE ARTICLE COULD END HERE. OPTIONAL MATERIAL FOLLOWS).

Seeking to weaken the core of the Western coalition Several dozen countries form the core that supports Ukraine by providing military aid or sanctioning Russia.

Western unity during the war has proven notable, with countries long considered relatively friendly to Russia – such as Germany, France and Italy – siding firmly behind Ukraine. NATO, described as a victim of “brain death” by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2019, again serves the clear purpose of protecting the Western alliance from Russian attack.

But even among Western countries unity has not been perfect. Hungary has technically sanctioned Russia as a member of the European Union, but under leader Viktor Orban it has been a persistent exception in supporting Ukraine within the EU. Hungary delayed several EU decisions requiring unanimous support.

Other countries that have provided military support to Ukraine have refused to impose economic sanctions on Russia.

And a much smaller group of countries have done it all: impose sanctions, supply heavy weapons – such as tanks, armored vehicles and air defense missile systems – and pledge at least 0.1% of gross domestic product as bilateral aid to Ukraine , according to data from the Kiel Institute for World Economy.

One year into the war, Russia’s strategy is clear: wait for the West. Putin is betting that, over time, European countries, worried about the effects of the war on their economies and policies, will stop supporting sanctions and arms supplies. Countries in Asia, the Middle East and Africa that are already neutral in the conflict will continue to increase their trade with Russia.

And even the United States, with next year’s presidential elections, could get tired of the war and put pressure on Ukraine to give in to Putin.

How unified the West is – and how much of the world it is able to keep at least some of its side – could determine the outcome of the conflict.

c.2023 The New York Times Society