In the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bankruptcy in the United States, expectations are spreading that the US Federal Reserve will slow down its tightening pace. The prospect of a return to the Fed’s “big step” (a 0.5 percentage point increase in the base rate), which prevailed in the market after recent remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, has disappeared. The Bank of Korea also eased some of the burden of raising the base rate.
In the market, as one of the causes of the SVB crisis is the side effect of the Fed’s aggressive rate hike, weight is being placed on the interpretation that the Fed will adjust the pace of rate hike. Goldman Sachs, a global investment bank, is even interpreting that the US Federal Reserve will freeze interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be held on the 21st and 22nd of this month (local time).
Goldman Sachs predicted in a report on the 12th, “The uncertainty that the SVB crisis has on the path of raising the US base rate is wide,” and “the Fed will skip raising interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in March.” The logic is that the central bank and financial authorities must first provide significant liquidity to banks facing bank runs (large deposit withdrawals) and restore the trust of depositors. On the same day, Goldman Sachs revised the interest rate forecast path and predicted that the Fed would raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points each at the FOMC in May, June, and July, with the final interest rate level being 5.25-5.50% per year.
Carol Pepper, CEO of Pepper International, a US fund management company, also said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that day, “The Fed’s greatest responsibility is to maintain financial stability, so this situation is an excuse for the Fed to take a break (from raising the base rate). I look forward to it,” he said.
When Goldman Sachs’ report was released, the possibility of the Fed’s big step this month turned to ‘zero’ in the US futures market. According to the FedWatch of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which predicts the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy with futures rates, as of 12:45 am on the 13th, the possibility of the Fed raising the interest rate by 0.25 percentage point this month reached 97.4%. The outlook for a rate freeze like Goldman Sachs was 2.60%. The Big Step prospect, which was over 40% just 24 hours ago, has completely disappeared.
There are also observations that the Bank of Korea, which froze the interest rate at 3.50 percent last month, may freeze the interest rate again at the Monetary Policy Committee on the 11th of next month. After confirming the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy, which will be announced next week, the BOK is expected to make a final decision on whether or not to raise the base rate after looking at the inflation rate and exchange rate trend in March. Vice-Governor Lee Seung-heon of the Bank of Korea evaluated at the ‘Market Situation Review Meeting’ on the 13th, “Currently, the possibility that the closure of US SVB and signature banks will spread as a systemic risk throughout the financial sector, including banks, is not high.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.