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Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to China vs. Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the US… Election in Taiwan as ‘US-China showdown’ heats up

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Pro-Chinese Ma Ying-jeou, to China on the 27th
The first visit to China by a former or current Taiwanese president
The summit meeting with Xi Jinping during his tenure
Tsai Ing-wen visits Central America at the end of this month

Former President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan’s pro-China opposition Nationalist Party will visit China from the 27th to the 7th of next month. After Chiang Kai-shek, the first president of the Republic of Korea, was defeated by the Chinese Communist Party in the Chinese Civil War in 1949 and was defeated in Taiwan, he is the first former and incumbent president to visit the mainland.

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Tsai Ing-wen, president of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, will leave for the US at the end of this month at the earliest. Analysts say that the confrontation between pro- and anti-China forces in Taiwan has begun in earnest as President Tsai, who has maintained an anti-China line throughout his presidency, is expected to meet US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who ranks third in power, on the US mainland. The proxy war between the US and China over Taiwan is also likely to intensify.

The actions of the former and current presidents are highly likely to have a significant impact on the presidential election in January next year. In the Democratic Progressive Party, Vice President Lai Qingde was virtually confirmed as the presidential candidate. In the Kuomintang, Foxconn founder Guo Taiming, President Zhu Lilun (朱立倫), who led the local elections to victory in November last year, New Taipei City Mayor Hou Youyi (侯友宜), and Taipei Mayor Zhang Wan’an (蔣萬安), the great-grandson of the first president, were mentioned. do.

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● Ma Ying-jeou vs. Tsai Ing-wen

According to Reuters on the 19th, during his visit to China, former President Ma decided to visit Shanghai, the economic capital, Wuhan, Hubei Province, which was the epicenter of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19), and Changsha, Hunan Province, the family base, and Chongqing. In Changsha, the schedule includes holding ancestral rites for ancestors and visiting the sites of the Xinhai Revolution in 1911 and the sites of World War II.

He also decided to bring a student delegation and arrange a meeting between them and Chinese students. The schedule for the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was not disclosed.

The Taiwan Affairs Office of China’s State Council welcomed former President Ma in a statement on its website on the 20th, saying, “We welcome former President Ma to come to China and hold ancestral rites to the ancestors.” He went on to emphasize that he would provide cooperation, saying, “Strengthening exchanges and exchanges between the youths of both Straits (China and Taiwan) will add new impetus to the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.”

Former President Ma, who served from 2008 to 2016, stayed close to China throughout his presidency for reasons such as economic development. He also met with President Xi in Singapore in 2015. It was the first summit between Chinese and Taiwanese leaders.

According to Taiwanese media outlets such as Ziyu Shibo, President Tsai will depart for Guatemala, Belize, and the United States at the end of this month at the earliest. During his visit to the United States, he decided to give a speech at a California library named after former President Ronald Reagan, who advocated a “strong America” ​​during the Cold War. At this time, the possibility of meeting with Chairman McCarthy is raised. California is Chairman McCarthy’s constituency and is home to a significant number of Chinese and Taiwanese immigrants.

● Structure of the US-China confrontation in the presidential election

It is also noteworthy that the visits to China and the United States by former and incumbent presidents took place eight months before the presidential election in January next year.

The Democratic Progressive Party suffered a crushing defeat in local elections last November. When then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan three months before the election, the Chinese military threat to Taiwan had an impact. The decrease in trade with China, the largest trading partner, due to President Tsai’s anti-China stance, and the economic difficulties caused by Corona 19, etc., also acted as factors for the defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party. In the aftermath of this, President Tsai resigned from the post of party chairman, and the prospects for next year’s presidential election are also not bright.

According to Taiwanese media outlets such as the China Times, in an opinion poll released on the 2nd, 61.1% of Taiwanese responded that they “should get along well with both the US and China.” Only 22.8% said, “We need to be friendly with the US.” This shows that public opinion supporting the Democratic Progressive Party is not the same as before.

With former President Ma visiting China at such a delicate moment, critics say it shows China’s determination to effectively intervene in next year’s presidential election and elect a pro-China candidate from the Nationalist Party. It is said that it is trying to spread public opinion that ‘it is beneficial to Taiwan when a candidate friendly to China is in power’.

Source: Donga

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