Stipulation of South Korea’s participation in the provision of US nuclear forces
Possibility of formalities such as joint statements rather than agreements
It is known that South Korea and the United States are preparing a joint text to strengthen the provision of extended deterrence by the United States in time for the summit between President Seok-Yeol Yoon and President Joe Biden on the 26th of next month. The intention is to prepare a countermeasure against North Korea’s nuclear threat and a detailed action plan for it, and stipulate that South Korea can systematically participate in providing nuclear forces in case of emergency, so that the two leaders can confirm it. Extended deterrence means that the United States provides South Korea with deterrence against North Korea, such as a nuclear umbrella.
According to the Dong-A Ilbo coverage on the 26th, the government is discussing how to reflect the content defining the role of South Korea in the process of providing extended deterrence to South Korea in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat. It is taking the lead to institutionalize the scope of planning, operational plans, and information sharing that determine the principles of nuclear use in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat or attack. It is expected that Korea will be able to conceive and decide on this process together, or reflect its voice, going one step further than waiting for and accepting the US decision on providing extended deterrence. Analysts say that, in effect, it opens a way to engage in and coordinate extended deterrence operations, similar to NATO-style nuclear sharing.
An official familiar with the situation said, “If it is decided that South Korea will procedurally participate in the joint nuclear planning and plan, it will be an ‘end stage’ text that enhances the US’ nuclear power to deter North Korea.” It is observed that the form of the document is likely to be similar to the joint statement, which is a political agreement, or the joint declaration announced by President Park Geun-hye and US President Barack Obama in 2013 at the time of the 60th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance.
Promoting a joint message to ‘reinforce the nuclear umbrella’
North Korea conducts blatant nuclear attack drills such as nuclear torpedoes
When Korea participates in the nuclear umbrella decision-making process
Active response to the North Korean nuclear threat becomes possible
U.S. evolves ‘Korea’s growing theory of nuclear armament’
It is predicted that the text may contain content that South Korea participates in the planning or execution process of nuclear capabilities provided by the US as an extended deterrence against North Korea, or the process of US sharing information with South Korea is systematized or institutionalized. According to North Korea’s nuclear attack or threat scenario, the role that South Korea can cooperate in the process of providing customized deterrence strategic assets can be more systematized. In a congratulatory speech at the graduation ceremony of the Naval Academy on the 10th, President Yoon Seok-yeol also announced that “South Korea and the United States will further strengthen extended deterrence by establishing a nuclear planning and execution system in response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.”
Through President Yoon’s visit to the US, President Yoon’s visit to the U.S. emphasizes the strengthening of South Korea’s capabilities for extended deterrence against North Korea, indicating a willingness to firmly control the recently advanced North Korean nuclear threat and increase trust in the U.S.’ pledge to provide extended deterrence. For 10 days from the 12th to the 23rd of this month alone, North Korea conducted a series of nuclear strike drills explicitly targeting South Korea, such as air-detonating ballistic missiles and strategic cruise missiles equipped with model tactical nuclear warheads or testing nuclear torpedoes using underwater drones. Since it is not a provocation aimed at the U.S. mainland like long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), doubts are growing whether the U.S. will take the damage and actively provide extended deterrence to South Korea in the event of a nuclear attack targeting South Korea. As a result, public opinion on its own nuclear armament is growing in South Korea as well.
If South Korea’s participation in the process of providing extended deterrence is institutionalized by establishing a joint nuclear planning and implementation system, South Korea can directly participate in the decision-making process in the event of a North Korean nuclear crisis without waiting for an arbitrary decision from the United States. As much as South Korea’s will can intervene in the way the U.S. provides the nuclear umbrella, it can increase the trust of the Korean people so that they do not distrust the U.S. extended deterrence pledge. Going beyond discussing extended deterrence policies and strategies at the existing ROK-US chief-level ROK-US Deterrence Strategy Committee (DSC) and vice-ministerial-level (diplomacy/defense) Extended Deterrence Strategy Consultative Body (EDSCG), the plan is to institutionalize concrete nuclear response execution capabilities.
If a joint text is announced at the Korea-US summit, it is expected that the US will be able to evolve South Korea’s own nuclear armament theory to some extent. In the meantime, whenever public opinion on South Korea’s nuclear armament boils or there are signs that it may break away from the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the United States has expressed opposition through the voices of Joya and an anonymous government official. Thomas Countryman, former acting undersecretary of state for disarmament and international security, said at a Voice of America (VOA) roundtable on the 25th, “I am convinced that (Korea’s own nuclear armament) would be an unwise choice for Korea.” , Would you want to have nuclear weapons at the expense of relations with the United States?”
Some U.S. experts also raise the possibility that a multilateral consultative body for extended deterrence similar to NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) could be formed using the ROK-U.S. Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation, a US think tank, said in a report on the 23rd of last month, “The US may designate an existing bilateral group as a nuclear consultation group and give it authority, but South Korea will recognize that it is sufficient to go beyond creating an NPG. that,” he pointed out. He then suggested that the US establish a bilateral NPG with South Korea and induce Australia and Japan to participate in a collective response to threats in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, it was emphasized that the deployment of strategic assets, including strategic bombers, nuclear-capable fighters, and carrier strike groups, should be discussed.
Former Acting Vice Minister Countryman said at the VOA symposium, “Extended deterrence is the use of all means, including nuclear weapons, and first of all, deterring North Korea based on conventional superiority.” We have to focus on it,” he said.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.