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WSJ “There is no plan to end the war in Western Ukraine”

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The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 27th (local time) that Western leaders are beginning to have a clear idea of ​​how to end the war in Ukraine, but are unable to come up with an action plan. Here is a summary of the article.

US and European governments expect the Russian occupation of Ukraine to be shaken this spring if Ukraine launches a counterattack with Western-sponsored tanks and other weapons.

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That could force the embittered Russian President Vladimir Putin into negotiating a ceasefire in which he would give up parts of the area Russian forces have held since last year’s invasion. Ideally, Ukraine could then deepen its ties with the West, and a defeated Putin would face the wrath of the Russian people.

But few officials expect that the process of ending the war can go as planned, and the West has no serious plans to make it happen.

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Most supporters of Ukraine are focusing on short-term priorities. The idea is to drive the Russians out of the eastern region in a blitzkrieg with maximum ammunition support.

Realistically, it is more likely that Ukraine or Russia will end up in a situation in which a war of attrition will continue until they drop out of exhaustion and the goal will not be achieved.

Many officials predict that this will take at least several years, and furthermore, the West has no clear plans for what to do with Putin if Ukraine wins.

There is a general consensus that there needs to be a way to ensure that Russia will not invade Ukraine after the end of the war. For example, it is a way to get Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or to conclude a similar treaty.

Some disagreements remain on this issue. French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, feared humiliating Russia, insisted that some countries wanted security guarantees in Ukraine in a way that Russia could agree to. On the other hand, there are countries that argue that Russia’s military power should be greatly reduced.

President Macron has publicly emphasized an early ceasefire. While excluding regime change in Russia, he sees no possibility of a decisive victory for Ukraine, and emphasizes that if Ukraine recaptures some of its territory in a major offensive this spring, it must negotiate a truce within the year.

But both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin are betting their country’s fortunes and believe they can win the eventual victory. So far, neither side has shown interest in a ceasefire, and there is no sign that this situation will change anytime soon.

Putin could drag the war on for several more years, hoping that the Republican president will reduce support for Ukraine in the event of a regime change in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Although he is experiencing economic difficulties due to Western sanctions, the Russian public has little backlash against Putin because the economy has not collapsed thanks to oil imports from China and India.

The support of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who recently visited Russia, also increased Putin’s ability to hold on. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, occupied the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and intervened in Syria in 2015, the West did nothing.

Meanwhile, from the standpoint of the Ukrainian government, the key is how long Western support can last. Another problem is persuading the people of Ukraine, who suffered greatly from the war. The Ukrainian government has so far maintained that there will be no ceasefire until full territorial recovery is achieved.

But even with the new West-backed weapons, it will be difficult for Ukraine to drive Russian troops out of all occupied territories.

Russian troops occupying Donbass in eastern Ukraine are strengthening their defensive posture. There is a high possibility that the attrition war that has been going on for several months in the Bahmut area will become the pattern of future battles.

The West can support Ukraine with weapons that will allow it to win decisively. However, no consensus has been reached on this issue.

While the two countries have taken the lead in emphasizing strong arms support, with Britain providing long-range weapons and Poland supporting fighter jets, the United States is very cautious, fearing that it will escalate into a nuclear war. The MGM 140 ATACMS support was excluded, and the high mobility multiple rocket launcher (HIMARS) was also supported by reducing the range.

Because of this, Ukrainian forces have been fighting tough battles with similarly armed Russian forces.

The U.S. and Western countries could pressure President Zelensky into negotiating a ceasefire by slashing arms support. But surrendering the occupied territories to Russia meant political death for Zelensky. An opinion poll found that 97% of Ukrainians are confident in a decisive victory and 74% believe that the borders established in the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 should be maintained.

Elsewhere, some Western leaders are willing to risk the long war, judging a victory in Ukraine as crucial to the spread of democracy around the world.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently emphasized that “everyone I have met around the world sees the war in Ukraine as a fight to defend values ​​such as democracy, rule by law, territorial integrity and freedom.”

A senior European diplomat said Western countries had discussed how to respond to Ukraine’s victory or defeat in the future, but pointed out that it had never been seriously discussed.

“It is not difficult to come up with a plan for a ceasefire in theory, but it is very difficult to come up with a plan with a high possibility of realization,” he stressed.

As a result, the West sees remaining in the shadows of the war in Ukraine as, if not certain, a good way to deter China’s ambitions to invade Taiwan.

In order for Chinese President Xi Jinping to decide to invade Taiwan, he must have confidence that the chances of success are high, but the West, including the US, is trying to dissuade him from having that confidence by providing weapons and increasing military power to Taiwan.

Xi, like Putin, believes that history is on his side and that America’s power is weakening. Therefore, if the West’s resolve to aid Ukraine weakens, there is a high possibility that President Xi will decide to invade Taiwan.

Source: Donga

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