The appointment for the presidential elections in Paraguay is next April 30th. An estimated 4.8 million people are expected to go to the polls to decide what everything indicates will be new a dispute between the Colorado Party, the current ruling party, and the Liberal Partyin a scenario marked by allegations of corruption and a particular “football match” atmosphere.
With less than a month to go before the election, a majority agrees that Colorado candidate Santiago Peña (44) is the favorite to be successful and succeed the current president, Mario Abdo Benítez. Peña is considered a dolphin of the former conservative president Horacio Cartes (2013-2018), a wealthy tobacco merchant, current president of that political formation and sanctioned as “significantly corrupt” by the United States.
Before him appears the leader of the Liberal Party Efraín Alegre, a 60-year-old lawyer who, with a consultation of the opposition forces, is trying for the third time to win the presidency and who has fired large ammunition at Benítez and Pena.
The confrontation between Peña and Alegre takes place in a particular scenario, in which it is estimated that up to 75% of voters consider their party affiliation as part of their social identity and vote based on this inclination.
“In Paraguay, people vote as if they were fans of a soccer team. Being Colorado or Liberal is a social identity and that means those fans vote for their team. 50% of voters come from the Colorado Party, and the 25% % are from the Liberal Party. Two-thirds of voters vote based on that affiliation“, explains the professor of the National University of Pilar, Marcello Lachi, an expert on the Paraguayan electoral system, in dialogue with Radio France International (RFI).
For Lachi, the government party has an advantage despite the accusations of corruption launched by the United States due to the weakness of the alliance that promotes Alegre.
“Peña has an advantage because this time the liberals have not managed to build a very strong alliance. There are candidacies from small left-wing parties that participated in the alliance five years ago that have lost against the Colorado party, but this time they are promoting other people,” says Lachi.
Over the past 70 years, On only one occasion has the Colorado Party been barred from government in Paraguayduring the presidency of the leftist former bishop Fernando Lugo (2008-12), deposed a year before the end of his mandate, after a series of paternity scandals and after being found guilty of “misperformance” of his duties.
What the polls say
So far it has not been possible to organize a debate between the two main candidates, polls show opposite trends.
The pollster GEO (Gabinete de Estudios de Opinion) gives Alegre (38.9%) the favorite over Peña (35.2%).
Far behind the anti-establishment candidate Paraguayo Cubas (10%), the socialist Euclides Acevedo (6%) and José Luis Chilavert, former goalkeeper of the Paraguayan national team and Vélez Sarsfield in Argentina, with less than 1%.
In Paraguay, presidential elections are in one round.
The Ati Snead Consultores study instead predicts the victory of Peña (46.2%) against Alegre (38.7%).
The winner of the election will replace Abdo Benítez on August 15 for a five-year term. On April 30, the vice president, 45 full senators (30 substitutes), 80 full deputies (more than 80 substitutes), 17 governors and 257 government councilors will also be elected.
Nearly 4.8 million people can voteout of a population of 7.5 million, in these elections which will be observed by missions of the Organization of American States and the European Union.
“Anyone who is unwilling to submit to a debate cannot aspire to become president,” Alegre said recently, after Peña made his participation in a presidential debate conditional on the inclusion of the other candidates.
“Peña has no political experience, let alone political leadership. This is what will be highlighted in a debate. That’s why he’s afraid,” she said.
Source: AFP and RFI
Source: Clarin
Mary Ortiz is a seasoned journalist with a passion for world events. As a writer for News Rebeat, she brings a fresh perspective to the latest global happenings and provides in-depth coverage that offers a deeper understanding of the world around us.