US 236,000 new jobs in March, lowest in 27 months… “97% chance of recession in July”

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U.S. new employment fell to 236,000 in March, the lowest in 27 months since December 2020, suggesting signs of a labor market slowdown.

On the 7th (local time), the US Department of Labor reported that new employment in the non-agricultural sector in March was 236,000, a decrease of 60,000 compared to the previous month (326,000). It was found to be close to Dow Jones’s estimate of 238,000 and Bloomberg’s estimate of 230,000. Compared to the average of the past six months (334,000), this is a marked decrease.

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Considering that the average level before the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) pandemic was 220,000, it shows that the US labor market is still strong, but there are clear signs of slowdown, such as a decrease of about 15,000 new employment in the retail sector all.

Last month, the total number of job cuts in the U.S. soared more than 300 percent compared to the same month last year, and the number of claims for unemployment benefits far exceeded market expectations.

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● Is the US ’employment engine’ vitality declining?

The US unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in March from 3.6% in the previous month, suggesting that the US labor market is still hot. This is thanks to an increase in new employment in the restaurant, travel and lodging industries. However, the total number of new hires has entered a downward trend, and a slowdown in employment is being detected in the number of claims for unemployment benefits and the size of job cuts. During the week released the previous day (March 26-April 1), there were 228,000 applications for unemployment benefits, exceeding the Wall Street estimate of 200,000. The number of ‘continuous claims’ for unemployment benefits for at least two weeks was also 1,823,000, exceeding the forecast (1.7 million).

The higher-than-expected number of jobless claims last week was also due to the upward revision of the figures by the Department of Labor’s updated seasonally adjusted variables. Previous figures also rose by 40,000 to 50,000 according to the new standard. Eliza Winger, an economist at Bloomberg, said, “I’ve seen that the number of jobless claims has been too low (even with massive job cuts). As job cuts increase, the number will continue to rise,” he predicted.

According to human resource management company Challenger Gray and Christmas (CG&C), the total number of job cuts planned for last month was 89,703, up 15% from the previous month and 319% from the same month last year. As of the first quarter (January to March), there were 270,416, the highest since the first quarter of 2020, when Corona 19 was in full swing.

Despite the intense interest rate hikes by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, the strong job market has been a support for the US economic downturn. However, there are concerns that the probability of an economic recession will inevitably increase if the employment slowdown becomes clear and the banking sector becomes unstable and credit tightening spreads. James Cox, managing director of the Harris Financial Group, told CNBC that the Fed had put up a huge wall with interest rates, and the economy is running into that wall.

● Bank Crisis-Commercial Real Estate, Time Bombs Everywhere

Unrest in the banking sector is cited as a ticking time bomb for the global economy that also affects the US job market. International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva warned on the 6th that “the pressure on the banking sector is not the time to be relieved.” Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan, also said in an interview with CNN, “Lending has been decreasing since the banking crisis. Even if it doesn’t necessarily cause a recession,[the banking crisis]is bringing it closer.” Bloomberg News reported that the probability of a recession in July was 97%, up from 76% in the previous survey.

In addition, commercial real estate, where small and medium-sized bank loans are concentrated, is approaching the maturity of loans worth 2.9 trillion dollars (about 3825 trillion won) by 2025. Amid a sharp drop in demand for office real estate due to falling real estate prices, job cuts, and increased telecommuting, it is unknown when the insolvency will spread.

However, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, who is considered the representative ‘hawk’ of the Fed, said on the day that “the pressure on the banking sector is decreasing, and I don’t think this will lead to a recession.”

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch, investors raised the possibility of the Fed raising the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in May to 68% immediately after the release of the US employment report in March, followed by a freeze in June and July. We are focusing on the possibility of a reduction.

New York =

Source: Donga

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