China simulates attacks on Taiwan: the keys to the “Joint Sword” military operation

China launched on Saturday three days of military exercises around Taiwan, to put pressure on its authorities in response to a meeting between the island’s president and a senior US official that angered Beijing.

These are some of the elements that are known about the operation called “Joint Sword”.

1.

China has carried out a huge military deployment around Taiwan as “a serious warning against the collusion between separatist forces seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and external forces,” said Chinese military spokesman Shi Yi.

Maneuvers include patrols and “precision attack simulations” against “key objectives” to “create total deterrence and encirclement” of the island, according to Chinese state television CCTV.

The device includes dozens of J-18 and J-10C fighters, anti-submarine aircraft, PHL-191 rocket launch systems and YJ-12B land-based anti-ship missiles, according to Chinese media.

This Sunday, the Ministry of Defense of Taiwan detected 11 Chinese warships and 70 aircraft around the islandhaving sighted as many ships and 71 aircraft the day before.

2.

China considers the island of Taiwan, with its 23 million inhabitants, as one of its provinces that has not yet managed to reunite with the rest of its territory since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Beijing opposes to any official contact between Taipei and foreign governments.

Following a meeting on Wednesday in California between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Beijing vowed to fight back.

These military maneuvers are part of a broader “pressure on Taiwan” campaignJa Ian Chong, professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, told AFP.

In his view, “these high-level meetings allow Beijing to shift the blame to Taipei, Washington or others.”

3.

China has been waiting for Tsai’s return to Taiwan and the end of the Chinese visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to launch the “Joint Sword” operation.

For James Char, an expert on China’s military at Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore, this shows that China tries to “reactivate” relations with Europe.

But a military operation against Taiwan “will be harmful to this diplomatic opening”, he warns.

4.

These exercises are reminiscent of those that took place in August 2022 in response to a visit to Nancy Pelos Islandi, McCarthy’s predecessor as leader of the House of Representatives, the second American authority in the presidential line of succession.

Beijing carried out live-fire exercises ten kilometers off the Taiwanese coast in a similar week-long campaign to encircle the island.

This time, China has announced live-fire exercises off the coast of Fujian (east), the province facing Taiwan.

However, “Joint Sword” looks like it’s not the same size than what was seen during Pelosi’s visit” to the island — considered by Beijing as its own territory –, estimates Manoj Kewalramani, China expert at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore.

The economic situation after three years of Covid-19 and Taiwan’s strategic importance may also have played a role, according to Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research Institute.

“The restoration of Taiwan’s air and sea routes this year is very important for the economic recovery of neighboring countries and China itself, so the military maneuvers it shouldn’t escalate”he told AFP.