When will India overtake China as the world’s most populous country?

India will overtake China in terms of population this month. Or maybe in July. Or maybe she already has?

Demographers aren’t sure when India will become the world’s most populous nation, as they rely on estimates to make their best estimate. But they know it will happen soonif it hasn’t happened before.

China has been the world’s most populous country since at least 1950, when UN population data began. Both Chinese and Indian They have more than 1.4 billion inhabitants. and together they account for more than a third of the world’s 8 billion people.

“Actually, there is no way we can know exactly when India will overtake China,” said Bruno Schoumaker, a demographer at the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium. “There is some uncertainty, not just about the population in India, but also in China.”

When will it happen?

Mathematical calculations from a variety of surveys, as well as birth and death records, project India to overtake China sometimes in mid-April. But demographers caution those calculations should be taken with a grain of salt as the numbers are fuzzy and could be out of date.

“It’s an approximation, the best guess,” said Patrick Gerland, head of the UN population estimates and projections section in New York.

Until recently it was estimated that India would become the most populous country in the world. by the end of this decade. But times have been accelerated by a drop in the fertility rate in China, where families have fewer and fewer children.

How is it calculated?

Demographers at the United Nations Population Division make estimates based on projections from a wide variety of data sources to obtain what they believe are the most up-to-date demographic figures. The most recent update of the data used for these calculations for both India and China was in July 2022, explained Sara Hertog, a United Nations population affairs officer in New York.

Then the demographers use a statistical technique to infer when India’s population has surpassed China’s, according to Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor at Khalifa University of Science and Technology in Abu Dhabi.

“Actually, obviously, these estimates are just that,” Gietel-Basten said. “But at least they’re based on a relatively robust and consistent methodology.”

Where do the figures come from?

The basis of the figures for both nations are the censusesor people counts, which are performed every decade.

China’s most recent census was conducted in 2020. Demographers have used birth and death records, along with other administrative data, to calculate how the population has grown since then.

The latest census in India was in 2011.. Your scheduled 2021 census has been postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. With no real door-to-door counting for more than a decade, sample surveys have filled in the gaps in helping demographers and Indian authorities themselves understand its population, said Alok Vajpeyi of the Population Foundation of India, a non-profit organization of profit. based in New Delhi.

Among the most important surveys is the Sample Registration System, India’s large-scale demographic survey that collects data on births, deaths, fertility and more.

Andrea Wojnar, the UN Population Fund’s representative for India, said the agency was confident in the survey data “because it uses a very robust methodology.”

Why is India growing so much?

China has an aging population with stagnant growth even after the government abolished the one-child policy seven years ago and only allowed couples to have three children two years ago.

India has a much younger population, a higher fertility rate and a decrease in infant mortality over the past three decades.

More babies are born in India each year than in any other country, while China joined many European countries in recording more deaths than births each year, said Dudley Poston, Jr., emeritus professor of sociology at Texas A&M University.

Because it is important?

It’s not about bragging about which nation is the most populous in the world, there are social and economic consequences. In India, that means a growing workforce and population growth fueling economic activity. In China, that means fewer working-age adults able to support an aging population.

Once a country reaches low fertility, it often finds it difficult to recover population growth, even with changes in government policy to encourage more births, said Toshiko Kaneda, technical director of population research at the Reference Office of Population in Washington.

“Psychologically, it will be difficult for China, especially given the rivalry in other areas between the two countries,” Gietel-Basten said. “It is an important moment in human history when the torch is passed to India.”