A recently leaked document from the United States has confirmed that US intelligence agencies expect the war in Ukraine to last into next year.
According to leaked documents, the US Daily Washington Post (WP) reported on the 12th (local time) that neither Russia nor Ukraine will win and that the situation will continue until 2024.
In particular, even if Ukraine recaptures a significant portion of its territory and inflicts “unsustainable losses” on the Russian military, it will be difficult to lead to peace negotiations.
The document described a stalemate as the highest scenario, with neither Russia nor Ukraine gaining a decisive advantage.
If the stalemate continues, it is expected that Ukraine will implement a “general mobilization order” to send more young people to the front. In this case, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that the war could escalate further or China could start supporting Russia.
In addition, he said that in the event of a stalemate, Russia will mobilize retired military reserves due to reduced combat capability and speed up the process of integrating newly occupied territories into Russia.
Heather Conley, chairman of the German Marshall Fund, an American think tank, said, “(War) has always been a race about exhausting resources.
Former State Department spokesman Jeff Ratke also explained, “It shows a reasonable guess that either side can concentrate military forces where they can achieve strategic effect.”
The WP said the document also analyzes the consequences if either Russia or Ukraine gains the upper hand on the battlefield.
In a scenario in which Ukraine gains the upper hand, “Ukraine may engage in risky operations for additional gains,” he said. However, the document still viewed the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons as low.
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.