How to avoid a war with China

In the summer of 1914, few wanted war or thought a big war was possible.

My grandparents got married that spring in Lviv, Austria-Hungary, and looking at the photos of their hectic wedding I realize that they had no idea that a cataclysm would soon wipe out their country, destroy their lives, and finally send a branch of the family fleeing to the New World.

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This year I sometimes worry that we will be there again too pleased with the risks of conflict that await us.

And perhaps the worstr geopolitical risk in the next decade or two it will be a war with China.

While neither side wants war, all now accept that conflict may loom and are preparing accordingly, raising fears on the other side and fueling a arms race.

It is time for both sides to take a deep breath and put aside the rhetoric and token blows that embolden nationalists at home but also raise the risk of global catastrophe.

A reminder of the risks came on Monday, when China responded to the US warm welcome to Taiwan’s president by sending a record number of military aircraft near Taiwan.

“The things that are done publicly, symbolically, to oppose Beijing don’t necessarily make Taiwan safer,” said Jessica Chen Weiss of Cornell University.

effects

For example, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosihe traveled to Taiwan last year as a symbolic show of support.

Taiwanese polls found by a 2-to-1 majority that Pelosi’s visit made them feel less sure.

If we want to help Taiwan, Weiss said, we need to more deterrence and less provocation.

In my opinion, conflict risks are mostly driven by Xi Jinpingfrom his brutal crackdown on Xinjiang to the massive expansion of its ongoing nuclear arsenal, and tensions will escalate further if he supplies Russia with artillery shells.

But American domestic politics are also moving in the direction of collisionand the situation could get worse as Democrats and Republicans rush to denounce China.

From an American perspective, another Cold War might not seem so dire, since we and the Russians managed to avoid incinerating each other in the last one.

But in the last Cold War, millions of people died in proxy war zones, from Vietnam to Angola.

And Russia and the United States avoided nuclear war in part because leaders on both sides had memories of it Second World War which made them wary.

I am concerned that today, as in 1914, the Too much security and short-sighted political pressure from both sides could lead to continued escalation.

I don’t need to be reminded how oppressive China can be.

I was in the square tiananmen in June 1989 and saw the People’s Liberation Army firing into the crowd I was in.

But I’ve also seen China lift more people out of poverty than any other country in history and dramatically improve education and health outcomes.

We in the United States are faced with the uncomfortable reality that an infant in Beijing may not be able to aspire to a meaningful vote or freedom of speech, but has a life expectancy of seven years longer than that of a newborn in Washington, DC

When I say we need to talk to each other, I’m not minimizing American concerns.

I count myself among those who be wary of TikTok due to the risk of being used for espionage.

But I also know that the US has similarly used private companies to spy on China.

When China bought a new Boeing 767 in 2000 to be the Chinese equivalent of Air Force One, US officials placed at least 27 microphones.

I think the US should put more pressure on China on some issues, such as the reckless way Chinese companies export chemicals that turn into fentanyl to Mexico.

The fact that Chinese-origin fentanyl kills many thousands of Americans every year, and it’s hard to understand why the deaths of so many people aren’t high on the bilateral agenda.

But we also need humility.

US politicians, drug companies, and regulators have done a catastrophic failed job with the opioid crisis.

Why should we expect Chinese leaders to care more about the lives of young Americans than about our own leaders?

The strikeout is not a policy and alienates ordinary Chinese citizens who are that country’s best hope after Xi leaves the scene.

That’s him long term game.

Anti-Chinese rhetoric and exaggerated security concerns amplify racism against Asian Americans and make Chinese people feel unwelcome in the United States, and it hurts us all.

In 2020, 17% of US PhDs in science and engineering went to Chinese students, underscoring that the US has been a great beneficiary of the brain drain from China.

But that could change.

A survey revealed a deep concern among Chinese academics in the US: 61% say they have thought about it Start.

I support the President’s actions Joe Biden to strengthen U.S. industry and its substantial efforts to increase military readiness in the Western Pacific.

But we recognize that the most important step we can take to strengthen America against China has nothing to do with the military.

It would simply be addressing America’s dysfunction — from addiction to child poverty and our failed foster care system — and investing in our education system to produce stronger citizens and a more robust nation.

This is the lesson we need to learn from China, not picky nationalism, and the best way to meet the Chinese challenge.

c.2023 The New York Times Society