Why the conflict in Sudan matters to the rest of the world

Fighting in Sudan between forces loyal to two high-ranking generals put that nation at risk of collapse and could have consequences far beyond its borders.

Both sides have tens of thousands of fighters, foreign sponsors, mineral riches and other assets that could insulate them from sanctions. It’s a recipe for the kind of protracted conflict which has devastated other countries in the Middle East and Africa, from Lebanon and Syria to Libya and Ethiopia.

The fighting, which started when Sudan was trying make the transition to democracythey have already killed hundreds and left millions trapped in urban areas, safe from gunfire, explosions and looters.

A look at what is happening and the impact it could have outside Sudan.

Who fights?

The general Abdel Fattah Burhanchief of the armed forces, and general Mohammed Hamdan Dagaloleader of a paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), spun off from Darfur’s notorious Janjaweed militias, is attempting to take control of Sudan.

This takes place two years after thejointly carry out a military coup and derail a transition to democracy that began after protesters helped force the autocrat’s ouster in 2019 Omar al-Bashir. In recent months, negotiations had begun to resume the democratic transition.

It is likely that the winner of the last fights be the next president of Sudan and that the loser faces exile, arrest or death. A protracted civil war or the division of the Arab and African country into rival fiefdoms is also possible.

Alex De Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University, wrote in a memo to colleagues this week that the conflict should be seen as “the first round of a civil war”.

“Unless concluded quickly, the conflict will become a multi-layered game in which regional and some international actors will defend their interests, using money, arms supplies and possibly their own troops or proxies,” he wrote.

What does the fighting mean for Sudan’s neighbors?

Sudanese is the third largest country in Africa by area and stretches along the Nile River, sharing its waters with two heavyweights of the region, Egypt and Ethiopia.

Egypt depends on the Nile to support its population of more than 100 million, and Ethiopia is building a huge dam upstream which alarms both Cairo and Khartoum.

Egypt maintains close relations with the Sudanese military, which it considers an ally against Ethiopia. Cairo has reached out to both sides in Sudan to press for a ceasefire, but is unlikely to stand idly by whether the army faces defeat.

Sudan borders with five other countries: Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea and South Sudan, which separated in 2011 and took 75% of Khartoum’s oil resources with them. almost all are submerged in their conflicts internally, with various rebel groups operating along porous borders.

“What’s happening in Sudan will not stay in Sudansaid Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group. ‘Chad and South Sudan appear to be the countries most immediately at risk of spillage. But the longer (the fighting) goes on, the more likely we are to see an external intervention of greatness”.

Which external powers are interested in Sudan?

In the last few years, Countries of the Arab Gulf they have set their sights on the Horn of Africa to project their power into the region.

United Arab Emiratesa rising military power that has expanded its presence in the Middle East and East Africa, maintains close ties with the rapid support forces, which has sent thousands of fighters to aid the UAE and Saudi Arabia in their war against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Russia, For his part, he spent time drawing up plans to build a naval base capable of housing up to 300 troops and four ships at Port Sudan, on a crucial Red Sea trade route for energy shipments to Europe.

He Wagner groupa group of Russian mercenaries with close ties to the Kremlin, has raided across Africa in recent years and has been operating in Sudan since 2017. The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions against two gold mining companies linked to Wagner in Sudan accused of smuggling.

What role do Western countries have?

the Sudanese has become an international pariah when he welcomed Osama bin Laden and other militants in the 1990s, when al-Bashir had given power a hard-line Islamist government.

Their isolation was deepened by the conflict in West Darfur in the 2000s, when Sudanese forces and the Janjaweed were accused of committing atrocities while putting down a local rebellion. The International Criminal Court ended up accusing al-Bashir of genocide.

The United States removed Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism after the Khartoum government agree to strengthen ties with Israel in 2020.

But billions of dollars in loans and aid was suspended after the 2021 military coup. This, coupled with the war in Ukraine and global inflation, caused a free fall in the economy.

Can outside powers do anything to stop the fighting?

Sudan’s economic woes appear to offer Western countries an opportunity to use economic sanctions to put pressure on both sides. that they stop.

But in Sudan, as in other resource-rich African nations, armed groups they have been rich for a long time time thanks to the shady trade in rare minerals and other natural resources.

come on, former camel herder from Darfur, owns large cattle ranches and exploits gold mines. He is also believed to have been well rewarded by the Gulf countries for the services rendered by the RSF in Yemen, when he fought the Iranian-aligned rebels.

The military control much of the economy and they can also count on businessmen from Khartoum and the banks of the Nile who grew rich during al-Bashir’s long rule and who see the RSF as primitive warriors from within.

“Control of political funds will be no less decisive than the battlefield,” De Waal said. “(The military) will want to take over gold mines and smuggling routes. The RSF will want to cut major transportation arteries, including the highway from Port Sudan to Khartoum.”

Meanwhile, the myriad of potential mediators – including the US, the UN, the European Union, Egypt, the Gulf countries, the African Union and the eight-nation East African bloc known as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) could complicate the peace efforts more than war itself.

“External mediators risk becoming a traffic jam without policeDeWal said.

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