The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 24th (local time) that Ukraine’s fate will change if the Ukrainian army fails to achieve a major victory in the spring counteroffensive scheduled to begin next month at the earliest, weakening the will of the West to assist and increasing pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire. time) reported. In this regard, U.S. officials are quietly preparing for the possibility that the Ukrainian military’s counterattack will not yield a great victory, POLITICO, a U.S. political media outlet, reported.
The New York Times said that unlike two months ago, US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials were concerned about a lack of arms and ammunition aid to Ukraine, they are optimistic that aid will continue.
The New York Times also pointed out that according to a leaked document from the U.S. Department of Defense, 12 brigades each consisting of around 4,000 troops will be ready for combat at the end of this month, so it is possible to predict the start of the Ukrainian army’s counterattack.
The NYT predicted that Ukraine’s counterattack is highly likely to unfold in the south, such as the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula and the coast of the Azou Sea adjacent to it.
The New York Times reported that Ukrainian officials are aiming to break through the Russian military defense line and significantly destroy the Russian army, but US officials are evaluating that it will be difficult for Ukraine to gain a significant advantage through a counterattack.
The NYT cited the large-scale consumption of ammunition and troops in the Battle of Bakhmut in the East as the basis for predicting that the Ukrainian army would not win a major victory in the counterattack.
However, the New York Times reported that US military officials say that Ukraine, backed by American and European tanks and armored vehicles, and trained and equipped by the United States and NATO, could again achieve a major victory.
“I am optimistic about this year and next year,” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told reporters during a visit to the United States last week. Ukraine will continue to win. However, I don’t think you should be too optimistic. There will be no magic wand that will bring down Russia.”
The New York Times pointed out that the Ukrainian army’s ammunition shortage has not yet been resolved and the shortage of anti-aircraft missiles could become serious.
The New York Times emphasized that the Russian army is facing problems due to lack of supply and training, and consumption of large numbers of troops and equipment, but it is showing that the vulnerability of the Russian army will not last indefinitely as it is presenting new weapons such as glide bombs while clinging to solving the problems.
Meanwhile, Politico reported that the U.S. government is officially emphasizing indefinite and unwavering aid to Ukraine, but U.S. officials are concerned that they could be attacked by both hardliners and moderates if a counteroffensive fails to achieve great success.
Hardliners expect the US government to criticize the US for not providing long-range rockets and fighter jets, while moderates will criticize Ukraine for demonstrating its inability to oust Russia.
Politico also predicted that if the Ukrainian army fails to win, European countries will place more importance on the ceasefire negotiations.
Politico noted that while officials stressed that they were strategically doing everything possible to ensure the Ukrainians’ victory, deep down they were worried that the Ukrainians would be able to win.
Ukraine, for example, wants to sever the link between Crimea and mainland Russia, but US officials are skeptical.
There are hopes that the Ukrainian government will lower its targets, Politico said, but talks are underway to ensure that Ukraine treats the “truce” as an opportunity to regain territory in the future, rather than a permanent deal.
Politico analyzed, however, that even in such a case, the US government and its European allies could weaken their will to support Ukraine, as it would be difficult for the US government to avoid being attacked by both hard-liners at home.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.