The triumph of Santiago Peña in Paraguay and the impetus needed for Mercosur

Santiago Peña was elected President of Paraguay. Follow, as almost always, the Colorado Party in the control of the executive branch (and the legislature). It is presumable that a renewed team – in terms of age and training – will face the new challenges that are presented to the Mediterranean country.

Paraguay has achieved great stability over the past 20 years, with a permanent improvement in its economic and social statistics, as well as low country risk and a comfortable reserve in its central bank.

Two issues loom large as questions: 1) Its future relationship with Mercosur and 2) The continuity of its relationship with Taiwan and/or the establishment of relations with the People’s Republic of China.

Both themes are directly connected and, some argue, that Paraguay needs to adjust its current relationship with Taiwan in order to link up with mainland China.

Relations

We separate the wheat from the chaff.

As regards Mercosur, I have not the slightest doubt that Paraguay’s future relations with Brazil and Uruguay willthey will continue to be the bestbeyond the diversity of ideological signs.

In the case of Argentina, connection to the next administration will be substantially better….and I’m not talking about the ideological bond, but about the certain improvement that Argentina will have in its relations with the world, so deteriorated during Kirchnerism (with the exception of some dictatorships, the pondered Chinese attitude, in defense of its loans and work in progress, and the responsible attitude of the IMF and the US Treasury not to push us towards a default which, from virtual, could become real).

Since 2010, China has offered Mercosur the opportunity to sit down, first at a feasibility analysis table and, subsequently, to negotiate a free trade agreement.

Since that date, there have been only two meetings to harmonize a common agenda between our region and China. To date, it has been impossible to move in that direction. It wasn’t for lack of Chinese interest, which you never put as a prerequisite that Paraguay change its current ties with Taiwan (it has always considered it an internal matter of Mercosur).

talks

I am sure that, with the leadership of Brazil, we will advance in the perfection of an FTA with the EU -already signed and awaiting parliamentary ratification on both sides of the Atlantic- resolving some adjustments to what has already been negotiated (with a clear priority of energy issues and a robust environmental agreement).

Likewise, as stated by President Lula da Silva during his visits to Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Beijing, will promote vigorous negotiating initiative with China.

The continuous, plus the “new” winds blowing in Paraguay, will be a reinforcement to mobilize the, so far, fstrong opening energies of the regionthe most closed of all in the world.

If, in addition to the winds, we row hard and put our intelligence into motion, we will obtain trade, investment and tourism flows for the region that will change our future on the path of economic and social progress.

Former Argentine ambassador to the US, EU, China and Brazil.