Elections in Paraguay: Mercosur, the single currency, the waterway and Itaipu, the issues that Santiago Peña will have to discuss with Brazil and Argentina

In the midst of a scenario that foresaw a hard-fought and uncertain ending, the unappealable triumph of santiagopena in the presidential elections of Paraguay he reconfirms the dominance of the Colorado Party in the politics of the neighboring country. After the election competition, the president-elect expects a number of national and international challengesfrom the solution of the internal one of his party to what decision he will take regarding Mercosur and the relationship with Taiwan.

The first expectation in the region is what attitude will he take Ache as regards Mercosur: deepen or seek agreements externally.

Indeed, the leaders of the countries of the bloc were among the first to say hello and congratulate to Santiago Peña for his victory. Alberto Fernández spoke to the president-elect and later tweeted that “integration is the way”.

Lula da Silva, for his part, has promised that “they will work together for a more united South America, development and prosperity” and Luis Lacalle Por congratulated him and declared that they will work to “strengthen the region”.

Agreements outside or inside Mercosur?

In previous statements, Peña said that although Mercosur needs to be rethought based on the current dynamics of each country, Paraguay’s integration into the world It must take place within the regional block.

“Sebastián Peña will deepen the idea of ​​Mercosur as a market for all the countries of the bloc”, says writer and political analyst Carlos Mateo Balmelli, who to discard that the new president may be looking to venture off the bloc.

In that context, Asunción would continue in the line of Argentina and Brazil, and it would be different from Uruguay, which has recently expressed its willingness to seek bilateral agreements with other countries, especially China.

“Regionally, and somewhat due to Argentina’s fragility, Paraguay’s foreign policy has tended to be a branch of that of Brazil, and I don’t think Peña has the autonomy to deviate from that,” completes Mateo.

Relations with Argentina

In the multilateral context that Mercosur means, Peña will also have to deal with bilateral issues with Argentina and Brazil. He collection of a toll to Paraguayan products circulating through the Paraná waterway, decided unilaterally by Argentina, and the renegotiation of the Itaipu tariff with Brazil, are imposed as priority topics for the president-elect of Paraguay.

“Peña will have to sit down with Alberto Fernández and with Lula da Silva solve these bilateral problems. As for Mercosur, there are three questions: what do you think of the single currency, which has already been addressed by Argentina and Brazil; What do you think of Uruguay’s attitude to seek bilateral agreements, and what is done with exchange rates”, explains the economist and political consultant, Sebastián Acha, in dialogue with clarionwith reference to differences in the value of currencies.

Currently, the fact that the guaraní is more valued than the Argentine peso means that smuggling on the border between the two countries turns off It is a theme which, according to Acha, has not been practically addressed in the multilateral summits of Mercosur, such as that of border tourism.

“If Peña has the courage we ask of him, he could be a breath of fresh air for the bloc, and he could be able to put these issues on the table for debate, if Mercosur is to continue to exist as such,” completes Acha.

Taiwan, the United States and the Cartes situation

Although the controversy over the discussion on Paraguay’s relations with Taiwan revolved around the statements made at the time by the opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, the link between the two countries is a theme that has taken root in the Paraguayan debate, given that agriculture and the livestock sectors request for diplomatic relations with China to access their markets.

“For farmers it is a commercial issue: establishing relations with Beijing to sell their products there. For political sectors linked to the Colorado Party it is privilege the relationship with Taipei, and so hold a good relationship with the United States and the Indo-Pacific countries,” Rubén Ramírez, former foreign minister of Paraguay and currently head of Paraguay’s commercial investment advisory (TIP), told Clarín.

In view of the elections, Peña defended the relationship with Taiwan. “It is founded on democratic values ​​and principles and we believe that Taiwan’s experience can be very valuable for a country like Paraguay,” she said in an interview with AFP. With the Colorado Party candidate’s victory, Paraguay is expected to hold its ground and continue not to have diplomatic relations with China.

“If at the regional level Paraguay’s foreign policy follows the rhythm of that of Brazil, outside the bloc it is characterized by being aligned with that of the United States. In this sense, Asunción’s position is important for Washington, given that Taiwan is a military and strategic brake for China”, Mateo points out, adding that the strengthening of Cartes due to Peña’s victory creates an uncomfortable situation for the United States.

According to this perspective, Cartes could find that Peña resolve your situation with the United States, from the declaration of “significantly corrupt” imposed on him by Washington complicates not only his political life, but also his financial situation. It is an open question how the relationship between the two will develop, given that Cartes is considered the political godfather of Peña.

“It’s already been seen with Lula and Dilma. With Cristina and Alberto Fernández. Two-headed leadership never ends well”, completes Matthew.

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