Europe will not give up on Russia’s blackmailEuropean Commission president Úrsula Von der Leyen promised on Wednesday after Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland.

If the Poles are to last thanks to their reserves and the new connection to Norway, Bulgaria will have to be provided by its European partners because it only has reserves for a month.

Same country they refused to pay for Russian gas in rublesas demanded by Moscow, in order not to violate European sanctions on Russia for its attack on Ukraine.

The crisis could spread, although the ‘Bloomberg’ agency reported on Wednesday that up to ten energy companies in Europe will already pay in rubles and violate sanctions. Thus, Moscow sought to destroy the unity of Europewhich Brussels promised to keep.

Information from Bloomberg is doubtful because one of the countries whose companies will lend themselves to the Kremlin game will be Austria Y his government denied it. Von der Leyen reminded companies that if payments in rubles are not stipulated in contracts doing so is against penalties.

Von der Leyen from Brussels assured that the European Union was ready for the scenario in which Russia began to cut gas.

For Moscow, even if these revenues are important, is less than oil. Gas is about a quarter of what Europe pays Russia for hydrocarbons. Three quarters are for oilthat Europeans have promised to stop buying this year because it will be easier to find alternative suppliers.

Russia is attacking by cutting gas because more complicated to find another supplier to buy gas.

Contingency plans

The European Commission says it has contingency plans both national and European to deal with the cut and that there is no shortage of natural gas in any country of the bloc. And he considers that the use of hydrocarbon supplies as a tool to political pressure shows that Russia will no longer be a reliable supplier for Europeans in the future beyond what is happening in Ukraine.

Cutting gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria may be just a first step, but not all countries in the bloc will be affected in the same way. Many, especially some like Spain, France, Belgium, Portugal or Ireland, they barely imported russian gas.

For others, a more important problem will come. The 100% of the gas they import Latvia and Czechia originated in Russiasuch as 95% in the case of Hungary and 85% in the case of Slovakia.

The next most affected were Bulgaria (75%), Finland (67%) and Germany (65%). Poland has dropped in recent months from 54% to 18%, but for Estonia it is still 46%, for Romania 44%, for Italy 43% and for Lithuania 41%. Other countries affected to a lesser extent were Greece (39%) and the Netherlands (26%).

The most difficult situation is for countries that are more dependent on gas pipeline supplies and more difficult to obtain supplies through methane tankers.

Gazprom, under orders from the Kremlin, cut off gas because of European countries they refused to pay the game in rubles.

The Kremlin is demanding that European energy companies open up Gazprombank dollar and ruble accounts. They will transfer the money into dollars, the Russian bank will convert it into rubles, and they will pay in Russian currency. So Russia is getting hard money and keeping the value of the ruble, attacked by European sanctions.

An attack on European unity

Russia’s move is the latest for that try to attack the unity of Europe of penalties. If they fight the Kremlin, they will have few weapons left to destroy the unity of the 27.

Von der Leyen promised that European governments would “act unitedly and in full solidarity with the countries affected by this new challenge.” Senior national and community officials met this Wednesday in Brussels to put in place measures to help the countries most affected.

Community resources ensure that the Russian movement can speed up plans in Europe to stop buying Russian oil as soon as possible. Especially after last week Germany changed its position and ensured that its ready to cut purchases.

Both sources say the debate over whether to ban Russia’s gas imports could be Moscow’s own decision. with this cut.

Brussels takes months looking for alternative suppliers for gas. The plan is exponentially increase gas imports liquefied by methane tankers and the suppliers most likely to increase their exports to Europe are United States, Qatar and Nigeria.

40% of the gas imported by Europe comes from Russia. It is impossible to replace everything in the short term but the European Commission considers that it could be replaced this year up to 67%. The rest, if Russia cuts the tap, will have to be done less consumption.

Brussels, special for Clarin

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