An unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) attack has occurred in the heart of Russia. It is likely to be one of the most noteworthy incidents in the 16-month-long Russo-Ukrainian war. It could be an opportunity to dramatically change the deadlock situation. Unfortunately, however, it is highly likely that it will not be the way of dialogue and peace. This is because Russia has defined the incident as an ‘attempted assassination of Russian President Vladimir Putin’.
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Behind-the-scenes workshop… Was it an attempted assassination or a hoax?
The incident occurred at 2:30 am on the 3rd (local time). Two drones exploded over the Kremlin Palace 15 minutes apart. “The drone was destroyed by an electronic warfare system (EWS),” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. The Kremlin contains President Putin’s official residence, office, and Senate.
The reason behind it has not yet been revealed. They are making claims without evidence. The United States is sparing its words.
Russia regarded the incident as “a planned terrorist attack by Ukraine and an assassination attempt on the life of the Russian president.” When the Russian Investigative Committee also opened a criminal case, it was nailed down as a “terrorist act in Ukraine.” The Russian parliament and diplomatic lines also condemned Ukraine’s responsibility.
No evidence was provided. However, the Kremlin paid attention to the fact that it took place ahead of Victory Day on May 9. It is a national holiday commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Every year, large-scale military parades and commemorative events are held to show off military prowess. Some Russians have estimated that this day was the time of Ukraine’s ‘great counterattack’. Some regions have canceled the military parade due to ‘security concerns’, but the capital, Moscow, plans to proceed as scheduled. Overseas missions are also planned.
Ukraine denied it outright.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was visiting Finland, quickly responded by saying, “We are not attacking Putin or Moscow,” and “we only fight on our own territory.” “We have nothing to do with it,” said Mikhailo Podolyak, an aide to the president. “Russia will use this case to justify a massive attack.”
The United States does not take anyone’s side and is sparing its words.
Secretary of State Tony Blincoln said, “It is difficult to comment or speculate without knowing the facts.” Edo showed the position that it was too early.
The US think tank Institute for Warfare (ISW) weighed in on the possibility that it was a Russian play. It is explained that it would have been difficult for a Ukrainian drone to penetrate the multi-layered air defense network that Russia has recently strengthened and reach the sky above the Kremlin Palace to even create a dramatic explosion scene. Russia’s prompt and coordinated response was also cited as one of the reasons.
In addition, the possibility that it was the work of Ukrainian followers was also raised. Former Russian lawmaker Ilya Ponomarev claimed it was “the work of one of the Partisan groups.” Lee was the only person who voted against Russia’s forced annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
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Russian retaliation notice… Also mention of “elimination of Zelensky”
President Putin was unharmed. He was not at the Kremlin Palace at the time, but was said to have worked at the official residence of Novo-Ogaryovo on the outskirts of Moscow.
Nevertheless, Russia warned of retaliation. Spokesman Peskov emphasized that “Russia has the right to retaliate,” and State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin (Russian House of Representatives) warned, “We will demand the use of weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Ukrainian terrorist regime.”
Furthermore, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the National Security Council, hinted at the possibility of an assassination, saying, “There is no other option but to physically eliminate Zelensky and his associates.” He went so far as to say, “He is not required to sign the ‘Unconditional Surrender Document’.”
Medvedev is making hard-line statements on behalf of President Putin, but it is unusual for him to publicly mention the “removal” of President Zelensky.
This raises concerns about the safety of President Zelensky.
President Zelensky famously turned down an offer from the US government just before the outbreak of war to help ‘evacuate abroad’. He told the US side, “This is where the fight takes place,” and “what I need is ammunition, not a ride.”
Since then, he has mostly stayed in the capital, Kiiwu, where he led the war and visited frontline areas to encourage soldiers in person. He made some overseas visits, including the United States, Poland, England, and recently Finland and the Netherlands, but all of them were conducted in strict secrecy due to safety concerns. I plan to visit Germany on the 13th and 14th of this month, but there is a possibility that the schedule may change as the schedule was leaked in advance.
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Another old solution other than ‘conversation’?… heightened concern
It is evaluated that the possibility that the Russo-Usu war will end anytime soon is low. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and others are analyzing that the war is highly likely to be prolonged.
This is because the demands made on the terms of the peace negotiations cannot be mutually accepted.
In particular, Ukraine insists on returning all four regions (Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson) that Russia forcibly annexed last year, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, which it has virtually controlled after the annexation in 2014. But Russia shows no sign of accepting it.
This has frustrated the efforts of many countries and international organizations around the world to mediate. This is why the recent mediation efforts by Chinese President Xi Jinping and the meeting of mediators in Brazil do not receive much expectations.
In the end, Ukraine opted for a head-on breakthrough called a “spring counterattack.” The West is also moving towards providing more weapons to give Ukraine an edge in negotiations. Likewise, Russia is also stepping up its offensive recently, but the realistic analysis is that it is difficult to bring Ukraine into submission by force in the current situation.
In the midst of this, the mention of ‘removal’ leads to gloomy speculation that Russia is trying to shake the plate by cutting the enemy’s head. However, it is not an easy choice as the aftermath of criticism and sanctions from the international community is expected. In this respect, there is an opinion that this should be interpreted as a warning statement for a large-scale offensive.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.