Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous fool in the world

I haven’t written much lately about the war in Ukraine because very little has changed strategically since the first months of this conflict, when three overriding facts drove everythingand they keep doing it.

Fact no. Myth #1: As I wrote at the beginning, when a war of this magnitude begins, the key question one asks oneself as an international relations journalist is very simple: Where do I have to be? Should I be in Kiev, Donbass, Crimea, Moscow, Warsaw, Berlin, Brussels or Washington?

And since the beginning of this war, there has been only one place where you can understand the chosen timing and direction, and it is in the head of Vladimir Putin. Unfortunately, Putin does not grant visas for his brains.

This is a big deal, because this war was born entirely out of there – with, we now know, almost no input from his cabinet or military commanders – and certainly without any massive push from the Russian people. So Russia will be stopped in Ukraine, won or lost, only when Putin decides to stop.

Which brings us to fact no. 2: Putin never had a plan B. Now it is obvious that he planned to storm Kiev, take it within a week, install a lackey as president, put Ukraine in the pocket and end any cultural expansion by the European Union, NATO or the West in Russia. He would then cast his shadow over all of Europe.

Keep up appearances

This brings us to fact no. 3: Putin contacted a situation where you can’t win, you can’t lose, and you can’t stop.A. There is no way he can gain control of all of Ukraine anymore. But at the same time, he can’t afford to be defeated, after all the Russian lives and resources he’s expended. So he can’t stop.

In other words, since Putin never had a plan B, he opted for a punitive bombingoften indiscriminately, on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure – a war of attrition – in the hope that it will somehow draw enough blood from the Ukrainians and instill enough exhaustion in Kiev’s western allies, so that they give up a large enough chunk of Russia-speaking of Eastern Ukraine which he can sell to the Russian people as a great victory.

Putin’s plan B consists of disguise that Putin’s plan A has failed. If this military operation had an honest name, it would be Operation Save Face.

Which makes it one of the most evil and pointless wars of modern times: one leader destroying another country’s civilian infrastructure until he offers him enough cover. to hide the fact that he was a complete fool.

In his Victory Day speech in Moscow on Tuesday, Putin was seen grabbing at any argument to justify a war he started with his personal fantasy that Ukraine is not a real country, but part of Russia. .

He said his invasion was provoked by Western “globalists and elites” who “speak of their exclusivity, pit people against each other and divide society, cause bloody conflicts and upheavals, sow hatred, Russophobia, nationalism aggressive and destroy the traditional values ​​of family members that make a person a person”.

OH. Putin invaded Ukraine to preserve Russian family values. Who would say that? He is a leader who has a hard time explaining to his people about him why he has started a war with an insignificant neighbor who, according to him, is not a real country.

You might ask yourself, why does a dictator like Putin think he needs a disguise? Can’t you make your people believe what you want?

I do not think so. If we look at her behavior, Putin today seems rather scared for two reasons: arithmetic and Russian history.

everyone talks

​

To understand why these topics scare you, you must first take into account the climate around you, something that is perfectly reflected in the lyrics of the song “Everybody Talks” by one of my favorite rock bands, Neon Trees. The key refrain is: Hey, baby, won’t you look my way?

I can be your new addiction.

Hey baby what you gotta say

Everything you give me is fiction.

I’m a poor idiot, and this happens all the time.

I find that everyone talks.

Everyone talks, everyone talks.

This started with a rumor.

One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned as an international relations columnist writing from autocratic countries is that no matter how tightly controlled a place is, no matter how brutal and iron-clad its dictator, EVERYONE TALKS.

Everyone knows who steals, who cheats, who lies, who is in a relationship with whom. It all starts with a voice and often stays there, but everyone talks.

It is clear that Putin knows this too. You know that even if you go a few more kilometers to eastern Ukraine and keep Crimea, the moment you stop this war, his people will do the cruel arithmetic of his Plan B… starting from a subtraction.

The White House reported it last week an estimated 100,000 Russian fighters were killed or wounded in Ukraine in just the past five months and that there have been around 200,000 killed or wounded since Putin started this war in February 2022.

This is a large number of victims – even in a large country – and it is clear that Putin is worried that his people will talk about it, because, in addition to criminalizing any form of dissent, he rushed to court in April to avoid recruitment. Now, anyone who doesn’t show up will be restricted bank, sell property and even get a driver’s license.

Putin wouldn’t get that far if he didn’t fear that, despite his best efforts, the whole world would gossip. about how bad the war is going and how to avoid fighting in it.

Read on The Washington Post the recent essay by Leon Aron, historian of Putin’s Russia and scholar of the American Enterprise Institute, on Putin’s March visit to the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

“Two days after the International Criminal Court indicted Putin for war crimes and issued an arrest warrant against him,” wrote Aron, “the Russian president went to Mariupol for a few hours. He was filmed stopped in the Nevsky micro-district, inspecting a new apartment and listening for a few minutes to the effusively appreciative occupants.As he was leaving, a barely audible voice is heard in the video shouting from afar: “It’s all a lie!”

Aron told me that Russian media later deleted “It’s all a lie” from the audio, but the fact that it was left there may have been a subversive act by someone in the official Russian media hierarchy. Everyone talks.

Which brings us to the other thing Putin knows: “The gods of Russian history are extremely ruthless about military defeat,” Aron said.

In the modern era, “when a Russian leader ends a war with a clear defeat – or no victory – regime change usually occurs. We have seen it after the First Crimean War, after the Russo-Japanese War, after Russia’s defeats in World War I, after Khrushchev’s withdrawal from Cuba in 1962, and after the Brezhnev and Co. hoax in Afghanistan, that precipitated the perestroika revolution and Gorbachev’s glasnost. . The Russian people, despite their recognized patience, will forgive many things, but not military defeat.”

It is for these reasons that Aron, who has just finished a book on Putin’s Russia, argues that the Ukrainian conflict it’s far from over and it could get much worse before it does.

“There are now two ways for Putin to end this war he cannot win and cannot walk away from,” Aron said. “One is to continue until Ukraine bleeds to death and/or until Ukraine fatigue is felt in the West.”

And the other, he argued, “is to somehow force a direct confrontation with the United States – bring us to the brink of an all-out strategic nuclear exchange – and then step back and propose to a frightened West a comprehensive agreement, which include a neutral Ukraine.” and disarm and maintain Crimea and Donbass”.

It’s impossible to get inside Putin’s head and predict his next move, but I’m worried. Because what we know from Putin’s actions is that he knows that his Plan A has failed. And now he will do everything to produce a Plan B that justifies the terrible losses that he has accumulated in the name of a country where everyone talks and where defeated leaders do not retreat peacefully.

The New York Times

Translation: Elisa Carnelli