Korea, the U.S. and Japan hold a summit at the G7 meeting this week… Will North Korea resume its provocations?

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On the occasion of the G7 summit, which opens this week, the leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan will meet to discuss joint countermeasures against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats. There is a possibility that North Korea, which has been quiet for a month, will use this as an excuse to resume armed provocations.

The leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan will hold a trilateral meeting at the G7 Summit to be held in Hiroshima, Japan, from the 19th to the 21st. The 21st, the last day of the summit, is likely.

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At this meeting, strategic cooperation plans to upgrade Korea-US-Japan cooperation to the next level, such as real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning information included in the ‘Phnom Penh Statement’ of last November, are expected to be discussed.

In addition, it is predicted that at the G7 summit as well as the trilateral meeting, strong remarks toward North Korea, China, and Russia amidst the new Cold War will be made.

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After North Korea adopted the “Washington Declaration” on the 26th of last month (local time), which contained measures to strengthen extended deterrence against North Korea, North Korea continued its scramble of criticism, including statements of criticism and threatening remarks, starting with a statement by Kim Yeo-jung, vice minister of the Workers’ Party of Korea, younger brother of Chairman Kim Jong-un. went.

They held youth and student rallies and even held a burning ceremony targeting the leaders of Korea and the United States.

However, military provocations have stopped since the first test-launch of the Hwasong-18, a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a solid fuel propulsion system, near Pyongyang on the 13th of last month.

In line with this, Chairman Kim Jong-un has continued to go undercover for nearly four weeks since the news of the on-site guidance of the National Space Development Agency was reported on the 19th on the 18th of last month.

This can be interpreted as keeping an eye on the flow of public opinion and weighing the point at which the political ripple effect of armed demonstrations can be maximized.

In addition, some analyze that North Korea’s quietness is not irrelevant to agricultural problems such as spring drought. According to state media reports, North Korea is concentrating its efforts on rice planting under the national mobilization system this month.

The Voice of America (VOA) broadcast last month reported that there are concerns that North Korea’s food situation will get worse this year due to the spring drought that came a month earlier than last year, based on satellite images from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Experts believe that North Korea may be preparing a large-scale provocation in response to the measures to strengthen extended deterrence, and that there is a possibility of provocation before or after the Korea-U.S.-Japan summit at the earliest.

In particular, with the deployment of US strategic assets such as strategic nuclear submarines (SSBN) to the Korean Peninsula expected within this month, there are also observations that the US will take action as a weapon with great symbolism of deterrence against the US.

The launch of the first military reconnaissance satellite, which Chairman Kim Jong-un ordered on the 18th of last month to “make sure it can be launched within the planned timeline,” is also being discussed as a provocation card that North Korea can use this month.

Hong Min, head of the North Korean research office at the Institute for National Unification, predicted, “It seems that it will take the form of responding to the SSBN call or deployment of strategic assets agreed upon by South Korea and the United States.”

South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are also planning to conduct maritime interdiction drills to prevent the proliferation of North Korean weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the high seas south of Jeju Island at the end of this month.

From the 25th to the 15th of next month to mark the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance, the largest-ever ROK-US combined and joint firepower destruction drill will also be held.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are expected to rise again in the near future as the joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States and Japan and South Korea continue in succession.

Source: Donga

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