Immigration to the United States: tension on the border with Mexico eases, but the causes of the “stampede” remain in force

Relative calm has reigned along the US southern border since Friday, despite widespread fears that immediate deportation measures, in place during the pandemic, for most migrants, including asylum seekers, will end. sparked a stampede from Mexico. Indeed, a surge in migrants has occurred ahead of the expiration of the pandemic-era distancing policy known as Title 42.

Given the uncertainty about the impact of the new dissuasive measures, migrants braved turbulent rivers, cut the barbed wire and climb over the steel border wall to reach the United States and surrender to US Border Patrol agents. On some days last week, arrests surpassed 11,000 and were among the highest on record.

National Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said on Sunday that officers arrested just 6,300 immigrants on Friday and 4,200 on Saturday. In television interviews, Mayorkas said so the new policy of the Joe Biden administrationcombining the carrot of new legal avenues with the stick of more punitive measures for illegal border crossings was working.

Now most immigrants have to prove they were first denied asylum in a country they passed through on their way to the United States. And they could face criminal prosecutions, prolonged detention and a five-year re-entry ban.

But the respite may be the calm before another storm.

tensions

It is unlikely The economic, political and environmental forces driving people to the United States will diminish in the coming months, and not all new US policy measures may survive.

Minutes after the new policies went into effect, immigrant advocacy groups filed a lawsuit to block a provision meant to deter asylum seekers from reaching the border, likening it to a transit ban repealed during the Trump administration. .

And a few hours before Title 42 expires, a federal judge from the state of Florida issued an order prohibiting the release of detained migrants Undated American in court. (The US government is contesting the decision.)

Beyond US borders, political instability, gang violence, and climate change continue to fuel migration.

Much of the developing world, from Africa and Asia to South America and the Caribbean, it is still reeling from economic ruin caused by COVID-19 and aggravated by the war in Ukraine.

“Everyone is looking at border arrivals, but the root of the problem lies in the push factors that will persist in the countries of origin,” says Justin Gest, a political scientist at George Mason University in the state of Virginia who studies immigration. “When crises arise, they generate flows northward,” he said.

In recent years there has been an increase in exodus from troubled countries in the Western Hemisphere, such as Venezuela, Cuba and Haiti. Unlike Europe, where numerous countries are potential destinations for migrants, in the Western Hemisphere almost all roads lead to only one country: the United States.

And beyond the factors that push migrants to leave their countries of origin, The magnet that draws people to the United States is the job market. Unemployment is at its lowest level in decades, but there are millions of unfilled jobs.

A beautiful moment

“There has never been a better time for immigrants to look for work in the United States,” says Wayne Cornelius, an immigration expert and professor emeritus at the University of California, San Diego.

“Most asylum seekers are also highly motivated by the prospect of better-paying employment, and many have contacts who can quickly direct them to job offers,” Cornelius said.

The policy of the Biden administration aims to discourage migrants to start the journey to the border.

So while Title 42 is no longer in effect, other new restrictions are. Migrants are forbidden to seek asylum at the border unless they prove that a country through which they have transited has denied them protection.

Exceptions are only made in extraordinary circumstances, such as medical problems, or in the case of asylum seekers who have used a mobile application to get an appointment at an official point of entry. So far the number of citations has been extremely limited.

The Biden government has announced it will open regional centers, from Colombia and Guatemala, where migrants can apply for refugee status and undergo an initial eligibility test to legally enter the United States. Canada and Spain have agreed to accept some of these asylum seekers.

Justin Gest, the political scientist, said the United States wants to spread responsibility for the absorption of so many migrants, “but it’s not clear it’s going to work.”

Since the beginning of this year, Washington has encouraged Venezuelans, Cubans, Nicaraguans and Haitians to apply for a “humanitarian speech” program. which allows them to fly directly to the United States and stay for two years, if they have a financial guarantee.

But many migrants come from countries not included in the program, such as Colombia, Ecuador and Honduras. And even for the four countries mentioned, the number of people trying to enter exceeds 30,000 places a month, except that many of them do not meet the requirements because they lack connections in the United States.

Shauyuri Mejías, a 48-year-old Venezuelan, studied the program but realized she could not participate. So he crossed the treacherous Darien Gapa jungle halfway between Colombia and Panama, with his son, daughter-in-law and grandson.

“We are the first generation of our family to come to the United States. We have no one to lean on here,” explains Mejías, sitting on the bottom bunk of a shelter in El Paso, Texas.

The Mejías family managed to use the US government’s application to arrange an interview at a gate and crossed the border before Title 42 was revoked. But among the many frustrated migrants piling up in Mexico, patience is bound to run out.

Historically, there is no conclusive evidence that more aggressive enforcement and more punitive penalties discourage mass immigration.

El Paso, one of the hardest hit border cities in recent months, has seen a sharp decline in immigrant detentions, to just 639 on Saturday, according to internal data provided to the New York Times, up from 2,131 on May 10. But this masks possible complications in the making.

US intelligence services estimate that there were between 60,000 and 65,000 migrants on the Mexican side of the border at the time, according to Raúl Ortiz, head of the Border Patrol. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said smuggling networks were spreading misinformation that the border would open when Title 42 expired.

A new wave could exacerbate both the humanitarian crisis like the political headaches of President Joe Biden and his administration. In recent weeks, shelter operators and doctors in border towns have reported an increase in hospitalizations for injuries sustained by migrants who climbed over the border wall.

While making her way through the massive steel barrier in the cover of darkness, Rosmarie Cepeda slipped and fell to the ground on the El Paso side of the border, breaking her left foot. They operated on her and it could take six months to recover. This 40-year-old Venezuelan chef said so he had decided to risk it after failing to get an appointment through the mobile app.

“I was determined to enter the United States. I have three children in Venezuela who depend on me,” said Cepeda, who is recovering in a church shelter and must use a wheelchair.

A new large influx of people would also put a strain on border processing centres. On some occasions, to relieve overcrowding the immigrants were released No immigration court appearance date.

This measure is criticized by the political wing of the Republicans, who are preparing to make immigration a central theme of their electoral campaigns by 2024.

If legal complications leave facilities dangerously overcrowded, the prospect will hurt the administration, said Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy think tank. “The American public will blame the president.”

Translation: Romano Garcia Azcarate