As the Turkiye (Turkey) presidential election held on the 14th led to a runoff after a close match, it is expected that it will be ‘two weeks of chaos’ until the voting day on the 28th.
Both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in first place and the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kltzdaroglu, a single candidate from six opposition parties in second place, are all guaranteeing a final victory in the runoff vote. In the midst of this, Sinan Ohan, the third-place representative of the Victory Party, who will serve as a ‘casting boat’, is walking a tightrope between the two sides. As election uncertainty grows, volatility in the financial market is also amplifying.
As Russia and the United States virtually support President Erdogan and Representative Kultz Daroglu, who share a similar line with them, the final vote is expected to become a ‘global political event’.
Representative Oh Ahn appeared on a local broadcast on the 15th and said, “I am confident that (my decision) will determine the winner of the final vote.” He did not rule out the option of meeting and negotiating his own terms with the two candidates, saying, “Meeting and discussion on political agendas are natural.”
In the first round of voting, President Erdogan got 49.5% and President Cultz Daroglu 44.9%. The gap between the two sides is only 4.6 percentage points, so the ‘ransom price’ of Oh An, who obtained 5.2%, is bound to increase.
Representative Oh An has a strong anti-refugee and anti-Kurd tendency, so he is critical of CEO Kultz Daroglu, who is warm to them. At the same time, he also criticizes President Erdogan for violating the founding ideology of ‘separation of politics and politics’ and walking the line of ‘theocratic unity’. In an interview with Reuters on the 15th, he said, “Refugees must be returned to their original countries. “I will only support him if he agrees to split with the pro-Kurdish party.” He urged President Erdogan to “keep the secular principle of separating politics and religion.”
However, Ohan’s support base is closer to President Erdogan’s. In the general election held on the same day as the first round, the ruling Justice and Development Party secured 322 seats, more than half of the total 600 seats. Given this reality, it seems likely that he will give his final endorsement to President Erdogan after continuing to press his demands.
Politico, a US political media outlet, predicted that President Erdogan is likely to win the runoff because he has been in power for 20 years and has controlled the media. In fact, the Erdogan regime previously controlled social media, the main election method of the opposition, and even blocked the accounts of 12 opposition figures.
Financial markets are also fluctuating with uncertainty. On the 15th, the Istanbul Stock Exchange triggered a ‘circuit breaker’ to stop trading for about 35 minutes after the index plunged 6.4% before opening. On this day, the regular market fell 6.1% compared to the previous trading day. The value of the lira also declined. On the same day, the lira fell to 19.7 against the US dollar, a two-month low.
President Erdogan prioritizes growth over price stability in order to win favor with the working class, the base of his rule. He is pushing the lira down by pushing central banks to cut interest rates, going against the global trend of interest rate hikes.
The Western bloc, including the United States, and Russia are closely watching the Turkish presidential election. While the Erdogan regime adhered to a pro-Russian stance after Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, Kultz Daroglu is a pro-Western stance.
US CNN predicted that if President Erdogan, the ‘strong man’, re-elected, US President Joe Biden, who values ’spreading democracy’, would be hit. However, President Biden spared his words, saying, “I just want the winner to win” for fear of being seen as interference in internal affairs. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian Kremlin Palace (President’s Office), also said, “Cooperation between Russia and Turkey will continue under any circumstances.”
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Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.