An early scorching heat hit the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, 13 people died in unexpected flooding in Italy. In Southeast Asia, the temperature feels like 50 degrees in many places, and the whole world is literally suffering. While it is becoming certain that a ‘Super El Niño’ that will heat up the sea this summer will occur, scholars around the world are coming up with pessimistic analyzes of the global environment one after another.
◆ There is 1.5 degrees left until the ‘Maginot Line’… Heatwaves, floods and droughts already at the level of ‘disaster’
The international community agreed to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees through the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. On the 17th (local time), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report stating that there is a 66% chance that the global temperature increase will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2027 compared to pre-industrial levels. WMO has been estimating since 2020 when the Earth will exceed this 1.5 degrees. In 2020, it was estimated at 20% and last year at 50%, but this year it recorded an all-time increase of 66%.
Following the bleak outlook, El Niño, already confirmed this summer, is a phenomenon that raises sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. As a result, global average temperatures are expected to rise. “El Niño is certain to occur in the coming months,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Talas.
Abnormal weather is being captured all over the world even though El Niño, which has a major impact on global temperature rise, has not yet come.
The Spanish Meteorological Agency announced that April was the hottest and driest month in history. Last month, the highest record was broken every day in Southeast Asia, including Bangladesh (40 degrees), India (44 degrees), Laos (42.9 degrees), and Thailand (45.4 degrees). The highest record, which repeatedly broke the record, was followed by casualties. In the United States, a heat wave warning of 6 degrees higher than normal was suddenly predicted near Seattle in the northwest, and a number of forest fires broke out in Canada.
In Italy, after a severe drought, torrential rains caused flooding. In the Emilia-Romagna state, over 36 hours of heavy rain with an average of 200 mm to 500 mm flooded several villages, resulting in more than 10,000 victims. Nine deaths were also reported, but Italian authorities said more could rise.
Drought damage is serious in South America. In Uruguay on the 15th, a severe drought caused the water level of the reservoir to drop, resulting in saltation of drinking water in the metropolitan area. On the 11th, Uruguay President Luis Lacaye Pou said, “The drought is caused by rainfall that is 60% less than it should have been in a year.” The Uruguay government is known to be reviewing restrictions on drinking water for students and whether to import drinking water.
◆Dartmouth University in the U.S. “Economic damage expected from El Niño will be great”
While climate change has already reached the level of ‘disaster’ and many damages have already been reported, Dartmouth University in the United States published a study in the Science Journal that “Economic damage is expected to be serious with El Niño.”
Even if the global goal of reducing carbon emissions is achieved, the research team predicted that the global economic loss of 84 trillion dollars (approximately 11510 trillion won) would be caused by the end of the 21st century due to temperature rises caused by El Niño. In particular, low-income countries were expected to suffer more than average.
The research team analyzed the correlation between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 1960 to 2019 and El Niño, and explained that about 56% of countries suffered significant economic stagnation in the five years after El Niño occurred. In particular, after 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, which are evaluated as the largest El Niños, they recorded losses of 4.1 trillion dollars (approximately 5442.75 trillion won) and 5.7 trillion dollars (approximately 7563.9 trillion won), respectively. This is analyzed to show a long-term trend of GDP declining, even excluding the large-scale financial crisis at that time.
“Even the United States experienced a 3% loss in income growth after two big El Niños,” said Chris Callahan of Dartmouth College, lead author of the study. There is,” he explained.
Study co-author Justin Mankin, assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College, said, “If the weather and climate change aren’t as bad as they are now, it will have a negative impact on the energy and transportation industries. did. “We found that El Niño is costly and bigger than we thought,” he said.
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.