Why hasn’t Ukraine started its spring offensive yet, with the European summer so close?

For months, Western allies have been shipping billions of dollars worth of weapons systems and munitions to Ukraine, with the urgency that supplies get to Kiev in time. for a counter-offensive scheduled for this spring.

Now there are only a few weeks until summer. And while Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an intense battle for control of the city of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian spring offensive has not started yet.

Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was postponed because of his country they lack enough western weapons achieve success without suffering too many losses. Weather and training also play a role, defense officials and experts say.

The authorities insist that the counter-offensive will take place soon. Ukraine the preliminary stages have already begun to establish the conditions it wants for an attack, said a US official, who requested anonymity to discuss security issues.

Here’s a look at the factors delaying the counteroffensive and the preparations both sides are making in anticipation of it starting soon.

The weather

One factor that is greatly influencing the delay is time. It took longer than the frozen land of Ukraine is expected to thaw and dry outas the dampness and cold of spring lingered, making it difficult to go on the offensive.

Instead, the soil has retained a deep mud that makes the operation difficult of trackless vehicles.

The mud is like soup, the official said. “You sort of sink into it,” he said.

The workout

In recent months, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have received combat training from the United States and its allies. But the last Ukrainian battalion currently under US training he is now concluding his courses.

With this latest contingent of trained soldiers, the total number of Ukrainians the US will have trained for this war sum exceeding 10,700.

Those forces learned not only field and medical skills but also advanced weapons strategies in conjunction with Stryker and Bradley armored fighting vehicles and Paladin self-propelled howitzers. They also include highly skilled forces that have been trained to operate the Patriot missile defense system.

According to the US military for Europe and Africa, more than 41,000 additional Ukrainian troops they were trained through programs run by more than 30 partner nations.

A new phase will soon begin: Washington will begin training Ukrainians in the use of Abrams tanks at the Grafenwoehr training area in Germany. But the Ukrainian government will not wait until training is complete before launching its counteroffensive, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters in late April.

The arrival of weapons

In the past five months alone, the United States has announced the shipment of more than 14,000 million dollars in weapons and ammunition in Kiev, most of which are replenished from the existing arsenal in order to get them to Ukraine faster.

NATO and other Western allies have also pledged to supply billions of dollars worth of tanks, armored vehicles and air defense systems.

But much of that equipment is yet to arrivesaid Ben Barry, a former British intelligence official who is now a senior land weapons researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

For example, of the approximately 300 promised tank systems, such as the Leopard 2 tanks that various countries have said they will send, including Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain and Germany, only about 100 arrived. Of some 700 promised fighting vehicles, such as British Marauders and Bradley armored infantry vehicles, only about 300 have arrived, he said.

Ukraine will also need enough ammo on hand to maintain a higher fighting pace once the counter-offensive has begun. As for the ammunition needed, the opinion of Ukraine’s military logistics chief will also be taken into account when determining when the army is ready to launch it, Barry added.

For just one type of ammunition, the 155mm howitzer, Ukraine fires between 6,000 and 8,000 a day, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova told reporters in April.

the clues

Both Russia and Ukraine are taking steps in anticipation of the counteroffensive.

Moscow must about 200,000 soldiers along a 1,000-kilometre (620-mile) front line, established using the same trench strategy used in World War I, a Western official said on condition of anonymity to comment on intelligence matters.

these soldiers they don’t have much training as Russia’s initial invasion force, which suffered heavy losses. But they are defended by ditches, minefields and dragon’s teeth, which are triangular-shaped concrete barriers that make it difficult for tanks to pass.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has begun shaping its operations, such as attacking Russian front lines with long-range artillery fire. This could indicate that the Ukrainian government is about to move to that site, or it could be a decoy to divert Moscow’s attention from where it had planned to launch its first strike, the official said.

When Ukraine try to penetrate those lines — whether in a limited area or in a complex campaign spread across multiple sites — this will likely be an indicator that the offensive has begun, Barry and the Western official said.

Barry said that when the Ukrainian brigades start moving through Russian-held territory and attempt to attack the Russian front line of defences, “that will be a sure sign, I think.”