“Kim Jong-un-Putin meeting is a new threat… “Strengthening practical extended deterrence”

[화정평화재 [Exclusive] 워싱턴 학술회의]

“Totalitarian alliance, a watershed in security
‘Korean-style 3 axes’ in response to North Korean nuclear and missiles, strengthened as a supplement to extended deterrence
Information warfare is needed to prevent misjudgment of Kim Jong-un.”

This year, marking the 70th anniversary of the ROK-US alliance, there are a series of cataclysmic events that will fundamentally shake the security of the Korean Peninsula. South Korea and the United States adopted the Washington Declaration to strengthen extended deterrence in response to North Korea’s strong provocations and institutionalized Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation through the Camp David Summit. Meanwhile, North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un is strengthening his authoritarian solidarity by holding a summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and requesting technical support from Russia to complete nuclear weapons while providing weapons for the war in Ukraine. At the 36th Korea-US International Security Conference held at the Hudson Institute in Washington, USA on the 20th (local time), security experts from South Korea and the United States had a heated debate about the desirable diplomatic strategies of South Korea and the United States regarding North Korean nuclear weapons and North Korean human rights issues amidst the rapidly changing political situation in Northeast Asia.

“The key perception missing when discussing diplomatic and security strategies for North Korea is that we have already entered the Cold War.”

William Newcomb, former expert panel member of the UN North Korea Sanctions Committee, said this while mentioning the need for a new North Korea strategy amid the North Korea-Russia summit and the conflict between the United States and China. As the diplomatic and security strategy for North Korea’s denuclearization was established in the post-Cold War international situation, a strategy suited to the new Cold War structure and a flexible response to implement it are needed.

“The meeting between Kim Jong-un and Putin poses a new threat to the Korean Peninsula that was not present in the existing scenario,” said John Tillally, former commander of U.S. forces in Korea and chairman of the U.S.-ROK-U.S. “Work has become very important,” he said.

“We need to pay attention not only to North Korea-Russia relations, but also to the relationship between North Korea and Iran,” said Bruce Bechtol, president of the American Society for International Korean Studies. “It could also have a big impact,” he pointed out.

Choi Byeong-hyuk, vice president of the Korea-US Security Research Association, also said, “North Korea wants more support and advanced technology from Russia and China, and it also has a long history of cooperation with Iran.” He added, “The totalitarian alliance could become a watershed in Indo-Pacific security.” .

Accordingly, there were loud voices calling for South Korea and the United States to quickly take effective measures to strengthen extended deterrence in accordance with the Washington Declaration agreed upon by President Yoon Seok-yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden at the April summit. Kim Tae-woo, head of the Nuclear Security Research Department at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs and former director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, “The Washington Declaration is not completely satisfactory, but it is like a half-full cup in that a lot of effort was made to strengthen extended deterrence.” He added, “Now, the focus is on strengthening actual extended deterrence.” “It has to be right,” he said. Next, the Korean three-axis system to respond to North Korean nuclear weapons and missiles should be strengthened to a level where it can become a meaningful complement to extended deterrence, and the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) should also strengthen practical nuclear cooperation in line with the situation in Korea, where several extended deterrence consultative bodies already exist. He emphasized that he did.

Frederic Vincenzo, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, pointed out, “The Washington Declaration is an important measure to strengthen extended deterrence, but extended deterrence cannot work if Kim Jong-un does not trust the political will of the United States.” He continued, “In order to prevent Kim Jong-un’s misjudgment, sub-state deterrence strategies (such as information warfare) are required to make North Korea believe that South Korea and the United States are preparing for a nuclear war with North Korea.”

As former President Donald Trump’s approval rating has recently risen and the possibility of re-election in next year’s US presidential election is rising, some have pointed out that a preemptive response to the risk of regime change in the US is necessary. Director Kim Tae-woo said, “It is difficult for the Washington Declaration to become a reality without political stability between Korea and the United States. Former President Trump’s demand for a five-fold increase in defense cost sharing is remembered as a nightmare for Koreans, so the speed of implementation of the Washington Declaration must be speeded up.” .

However, Chairman Tilally said, “We must remember that 40 years ago, there was a president who pledged to withdraw U.S. troops from Korea.” He added, “The Indo-Pacific is currently the most strategically important region for the United States, and considering the threat North Korea poses to the world, the U.S. “The administration has a clear understanding of the direction of the alliance,” he said. Considering the U.S.-China competition, this is interpreted to mean that even if former President Trump is elected, it is unlikely that the foundation of the ROK-U.S. alliance will be shaken.

In preparation for the expansion of North Korea-Russia security cooperation, it was also suggested that protection measures for South Korea’s civil infrastructure should be strengthened and that ROK-US cyber security cooperation should be strengthened. Troy Stangaron, senior director at the Korea-U.S. Economic Institute (KEI), said, “There is a possibility that North Korea will learn how to use the drones that Russia used in the Ukraine war,” and added, “South Korea’s civilian infrastructure protection plan should be strengthened (in preparation for North Korea’s drone attacks).” He said.

Experts who participated in the ‘Human Rights and the Future of the Korean Peninsula’ session at the Korea-US International Security Conference held in Washington, D.C. on the 20th (local time) urged that North Korean human rights issues should be discussed as a priority in security cooperation between Korea, the United States and Japan.

Greg Scalatu, Secretary-General of the Human Rights Committee in North Korea (HRNK), said, “The key to maintaining the North Korean regime is ideology, not nuclear weapons or missiles.” “There was an ideology that made people slaves,” he said. He then emphasized the need to bring in external information about the North Korean people, saying, “We must inform the outside world of the North Korean regime’s corruption and human rights violations, and we must internally report developments in the outside world, including South Korea.”

Frederic Vincenzo, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, said, “Bringing up human rights issues head-on also helps strengthen deterrence against North Korea by emphasizing the political will of South Korea and the United States,” adding, “Human rights should be a key agenda at the Korea-U.S.-Korea-U.S.-Japan summit. “I do it,” he said.

HRNK Director Raymond Ha said, “After the pandemic, no one knows what happened in North Korea because all diplomats and UN investigators stationed in North Korea had to leave the country. The first thing we need to do is understand the current situation in North Korea regarding human rights. “It is done,” he pointed out. There were also concerns that a human rights crisis could soon become a reality, such as the resumption of repatriation of North Korean defectors in China due to the opening of the North Korea-China border.

It was also argued that there is a need to diversify strategies on the international stage, including the UN, regarding North Korean human rights issues. With South Korea serving as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the first time in 11 years, an opportunity for cooperation between Korea, the United States and Japan has opened up in the Security Council, and concrete moves are needed to put pressure on North Korea at the UN.

William Newcomb, former expert panel member of the UN Committee on North Korea Sanctions, said, “The biggest problem with North Korean human rights or nuclear weapons is moral hazard,” adding, “North Korea is not punished no matter what it does, so it repeats human rights abuses or provocations. “He said. He said, “North Korea also knows that nothing can be done in the Security Council due to opposition from China and Russia,” and “moved the stage to the UN General Assembly to diplomatically isolate North Korea, such as involving South Korea, the United States, and Japan in sub-Saharan African countries that have relations with North Korea.” “A response is needed,” he said.

Washington =

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.