Did Iran manipulate Hamas to prevent diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel?

The intention is to avoid isolation due to the expansion of diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab countries and to prevent Saudi Arabia from possessing nuclear weapons.

Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Islamic suzerain state, and Iran, a Shiite powerhouse, have been at odds in the Middle East for over 1,400 years. The hostile relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran stems from the history of conflict between Sunnis and Shiites over the issue of selecting the caliph (supreme ruler). Muhammad, the founder of Islam, died in 632 without leaving an heir. Then, Islam was divided into Sunni and Shia over the position of successor. Shiites argued that Ali, a blood relative of Muhammad, should naturally become caliph. On the other hand, Sunnis argued that a person qualified to rule should become caliph even if he or she was not related by blood to Muhammad.

In the end, Abu Bakr (reigned 632-634), who was not related by blood to Muhammad, was elected as the first caliph by the Shura (Council of Elders). After passing through the second and third caliphs, Ali (reigned 656-661) became the fourth caliph, but was assassinated in Kufa, Iraq, in 661, and the two sects began to wage war in earnest. The Sunnis won a battle against the Shiites led by Hussein, the son of Ali, in Karbala, Iraq, in 680, and the defeated Shiites barely maintained their existence. Because of this ‘bloody history’, Saudi Arabia and Iran are still at odds to this day.

The two countries have been fighting for hegemony in the Middle East for a long time. The most representative examples are the civil wars in Syria and Yemen. In the Syrian civil war, Saudi Arabia supported the rebels and Iran supported the government forces. In the Yemeni civil war, Saudi Arabia supported government forces and Iran supported Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia has been working in solidarity with moderate Sunni Arab countries and monarchical countries. Iran has established a ‘Shiite belt’ extending through Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

In particular, the two countries have been at odds over the nuclear issue. As Iran actively pursued nuclear development, Saudi Arabia strongly supported U.S. sanctions against Iran. Saudi Arabia also cooperated with Israel, which has shown that it will never tolerate Iran’s nuclear development. Moreover, when the United States tried to mediate between Israel and Arab countries to establish diplomatic relations in order to isolate Iran, Saudi Arabia secretly supported it. In fact, Israel signed the ‘Abraham Accords’ with Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on September 15, 2020 and established diplomatic relations. Since then, Morocco and Sudan have established diplomatic relations with Israel according to the Abraham Accords, and Saudi Arabia is also negotiating to establish diplomatic relations with Israel through the mediation of the United States. Iran is concerned that if Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations, it could become diplomatically and militarily isolated in the Middle East.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (second from right) meets with Hamas leaders during a visit to Tehran in June. [이란 대통령실 제공]

The fierce battle for hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia lies behind the surprise attack on Israel by Hamas, the armed political faction that rules the Gaza Strip in Palestine, and the war between the two sides. This is why there is speculation that Iran is behind Hamas’ attack on Israel. Politico, an American political media outlet, pointed out that Hamas’ attack could be a ploy by Iran, which is wary of the rapid normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This incident is said to be a ‘big picture’ elaborately planned by Iran to block the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In fact, Iran appears to have been preparing for an attack on Israel for quite some time by rallying anti-Israel forces, including Hamas and the Lebanese armed faction Hezbollah.

The American Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on October 8 (local time) that Al-Quds (Jerusalem in Arabic), the elite unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, has been working with Hamas since August to raid Israel from three directions: land, sea, and air. It was reported that the WSJ reported that at the time, at the Iranian embassy in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, Al-Quds commander Sardar Ismail Qani, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas military chief Saleh al-Arouli, and Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad al-Nakala gathered at least every other week to discuss Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian also attended at least two meetings, they said, discussing the attack and subsequent events. Iran then announced that it gave final approval for Hamas’ attack operation against Israel on October 2.

The U.S. ‘Washington Post’ also quoted former and current intelligence agency officials in the West and the Middle East on October 9, saying that Iran provided technical assistance to Hamas to manufacture rockets, and that some Hamas members had been in Lebanon for a year. It was reported that at the ‘training camp’, they received cutting-edge military technology from technical advisors of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Mark Polymeropoulos, former Middle East counterterrorism official at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), said, “The complex attack that crossed land, sea, air, and borders, and the scale of training, personnel, communications, and weapons that would have been required for it, suggest Iranian involvement.” “In particular, paraglider attacks would have had to be trained outside the Gaza Strip,” he said. Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at the University of London, also said, “An attack of this scale could only have been planned for months, and would not have occurred without coordination with Iran.” He added, “Like Hezbollah, Hamas went to war on its own without Iran’s explicit prior consent.” “I don’t make decisions,” he emphasized. Stephen Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), also said, “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has been meeting with leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad to more effectively provoke Israel,” and added, “Hamas’ attack on Israel could be the result.” “He analyzed.

The reason why Hamas attacked Israel as Iran intended was because it was concerned that if Saudi Arabia and Israel established diplomatic relations, they would become isolated not only within Palestine but also from Arab countries. Saudi Arabia sent a diplomatic mission to the West Bank in September to meet Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas in an attempt to gain support from Palestinians, a stakeholder in negotiations with Israel.

Hamas, a rival of the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank, strongly opposed Saudi Arabia’s move. Unlike Hamas, which aims to destroy Israel, the Palestinian Authority is a moderate party that recognizes Israel as a state and seeks to negotiate with it. The American New York Times (NYT) pointed out on October 9 that there was a possibility that Hamas attacked Israel to block Saudi Arabia’s move to normalize relations with Israel. Hamas’ sense of crisis appears to have been further aggravated as Israel established diplomatic relations with Arab countries that were not recognized as states under the Abraham Accords.

What is even more notable about this incident is that Iran’s intention is to block Saudi Arabia’s nuclear development. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman presented the United States with the following preconditions for establishing diplomatic ties with Israel: signing a mutual defense treaty, allowing uranium enrichment for the purpose of building nuclear power plants, and providing technical support. Crown Prince Bin Salman’s request for the United States to allow uranium enrichment means that he will develop nuclear weapons in preparation for an emergency. Crown Prince Bin Salman emphasized, “Saudi Arabia is not pursuing nuclear weapons, but if Iran develops nuclear weapons, we will also develop nuclear weapons quickly.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (from left). [WIKIPEDIA, 뉴시스, 동아DB]

Saudi Arabia normalized diplomatic relations with Iran through China’s mediation, but has remained very wary of Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons. On September 20, U.S. President Joe Biden met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, and discussed the conditions for diplomatic relations proposed by Saudi Arabia. In relation to this, the WSJ reported on September 21, citing American and Israeli officials, that Israeli officials were discussing with the United States a plan to install a U.S.-operated uranium enrichment facility as part of a complex three-way deal to establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. .

Politico pointed out that if this plan is realized, Saudi Arabia will become the second Middle Eastern country to enrich uranium after Iran, and Iran may have been extremely wary of this situation. Eran Lerman, former Israeli deputy national security adviser, analyzed, “Iran incited Hamas to attack Israel in order to divert Saudi Arabia from developing nuclear weapons.”

Iran’s intentions have had some success so far. If Israel retaliates strongly against Hamas and the Gaza Strip is devastated and civilian casualties are enormous, anti-Israel sentiment in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries is bound to increase. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is in a very difficult situation. Saudi Arabia is in a position where it cannot side with Hamas, let alone Israel.

Perhaps for this reason, Crown Prince bin Salman emphasized in a phone call with President Abbas on October 10 that “escalation of war must be prevented” and “We support the legitimate rights and hopes of the Palestinian people and their right to achieve just and lasting peace.” Crown Prince bin Salman’s remarks mean that he will join the ’cause’ of building an independent Palestinian state supported by Islamic countries. Accordingly, the détente in the Middle East that the United States has been promoting has become difficult for the time being, and improvement in relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is not expected to be easily achieved.

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.