America, again the arsenal of democracy

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it seemed the idea that it might disappear mad.

Vladimir Putin it seems to have a powerful and modernized army, supported by a defense budget a dozen times larger than in Ukraine.

You don’t have to believe Ted Cruz’s style fantasies about the skill of an army that hasn’t been “awakened” and “masculated” to expect a quick Russian victory on the battlefield.

And even after Ukraine’s miraculous defeat in Russia’s first attack, one has to wonder about the longer-term prospects.

Before the war, Russia’s economy was almost eight times larger than Ukraine’s; despite Russia’s labor sanctions, the destruction in Ukraine caused by the aggression will likely mean that the gap is even bigger now.

Therefore, he can expect Russia to win a battle of attrition because of the amount of resources.

But that’s not what seems to be happening.

No one can be sure to what extent Putin understands himself how war is;

Are your frightened officers willing to tell you the truth?

But the way Russia is beating, with a horrible but vague threat against the West and destructive unrest such as the closure of natural gas in Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday, suggests that even someone in Moscow is worried that time is not on Russia’s side.

And U.S. officials are starting to talk optimismnot just about avoiding Russia, but about absolute success from Ukraine.

How did this become possible?

The answer is that the United States, although not directly involved in the fighting, is repeating what it did the year before Pearl Harbor:

We, with the help of our allies, serve “arsenal of democracy“, giving the defenders of material freedom a way to continue the fight.

For those unfamiliar with this story:

Britain in 1940, like Ukraine in 2022, had an unexpected victory against a seemingly unstoppable enemy, as the Royal Air Force it defeated the Luftwaffe’s attempt to achieve air superiority, a necessary condition for aggression.

However, by the end of 1940, the British were in a situation desperate:

their war efforts required large imports, including military equipment and valuables such as food and oil, and they were running out no money.

Franklin D Roosevelt reply to Lending and Leasing Lawwhich made it possible to transfer large amounts of arms and food to the imminent British.

This help was not enough to restore the water, but it gave Winston Churchill the resources you need sufferwhich eventually set the stage for Allied success.

Now Lend-Lease has revived and large-scale military aid is flowing into Ukraine, not only from the United States but also from many of our allies.

Thanks for this help, the arithmetic of deserted it is acting hard against Putin.

Russia’s economy may be bigger than Ukraine’s, but it is small in comparison including the US economy, not to mention the combined economy of the Western Allies.

And with its limited economic base, Russia seems incapable of compensating for its losses on the battlefield;

Western experts believe, for example, that the fight in Ukraine is worth Russia two years of tank manufacture.

The Ukrainian army, on the other hand, is becoming better equipped every day, with heavier weapons.

Suppose Congress agrees to President Joe Biden’s request for an additional $ 33 billion in assistance, an amount that we can easily paythe consolidated support of the West for Ukraine is imminent annual military spending From Russia.

In other words, as I said, time seems to be on Ukraine’s side.

Unless the Russians achieve the kind of dramatic victory on the battlefield that they have so far not avoided, such as a blitzkrieg surround a large part of Ukraine’s forces, and do so as soon as possible, the balance of power will appear ready to move further. in favor of Ukraine.

And let’s be clear on two things.

First, if Ukraine really wins, it will be a win for the forces of freedom anywhere.

Pause will be given to potential aggressors and war criminals.

Western enemies of democracy, many of whom have been big fans of Putin recently, will receive a matter lesson about the difference of macho bearing with true strength.

Second, while the credit for this success, if it is fulfilled, will, of course, be preceded and predominant among the Ukrainians themselves, it would not be possible without the courageous and effective leadership of some (but sadly not all) western countries.

Whatever you can say about Boris Johnson, Britain has become a stone in this crisis.

Poland and other Eastern European countries rose to the occasion, resisting Russian threats.

And Biden made a amazing job, holding the western alliance together while giving Ukraine the weapons it needs.

Past American presidents have given lively speeches about freedom:

“Break down this wall”, “Ich bin ein Berliner”.

And good thing they did.

But Biden has done more to defend freedom, in significant ways beyond words, than any president since Harry Truman.

I wonder if and when it will get the credit it deserves.

c.2022 The New York Times Company