Iran seeks to strengthen its hegemony in the Middle East by holding the Hezbollah card

Hezbollah’s intervention in the Israel-Hamas war could lead to a ‘fifth Middle East war’

Israel has suffered considerable trauma from the Lebanese armed faction Hezbollah. This is because of the so-called ‘34-day war’. On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah crossed the southern border of Lebanon and carried out armed provocations, including killing seven Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two. At the time, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert defined Hezbollah’s provocations as an act of war and took retaliation. The Israeli army mobilized 15,000 troops and advanced into southern Lebanon. However, Hezbollah resisted strongly and the Israeli army deployed an additional 15,000 reserve troops.

The Israeli army took the lead with powerful firepower and air support, but was pushed back by Hezbollah members in the battle, with 11 Merkava tanks destroyed. In the war that lasted 34 days, 43 civilians and 117 soldiers in Israel lost their lives. Hezbollah fired 3,970 rockets at Israel, causing economic losses amounting to $1.6 billion (about 2.16 trillion won). In Lebanon, more than 1,200 people were killed, of which 530 were Hezbollah members. The two sides eventually reached a ceasefire mediated by the United Nations. The international community assessed that Israel won the war against Hezbollah but actually lost. Islamic countries in the Middle East were enthusiastic about Hezbollah’s victory over Israel, which has a powerful military, and Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was even called a ‘hero’. Since then, Israel has been outraged whenever Hezbollah is mentioned.

The international community’s attention is focused on whether Hezbollah will intervene in the Israel-Hamas war. There are even predictions that if Hezbollah, which is sponsored by Iran, attacks Israel to support Hamas, it could easily escalate into the fifth Middle East war.

Hezbollah, which means ‘Party of God’ in Arabic, is a Shia armed organization and political party based in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was formed in 1983 with the support of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Islamic Revolution in Iran, in response to Israel’s attack on southern Lebanon to drive out Palestinian militants. Hezbollah’s political goal is to build a Shiite Islamic state in Lebanon using Khomeini’s revolution as a model. They also used terrorism as a means to achieve their goals.

The United States, Israel, and European countries including the United Kingdom and France define Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. Hezbollah’s representative terrorist attack was a suicide bomb attack on a U.S. Marine Corps base in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, on October 23, 1983, killing 241 U.S. soldiers. Hezbollah has carried out various terrorist attacks in the Middle East. In particular, instructors from the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s most elite unit, have directly guided the military training of Hezbollah members. Hezbollah receives hundreds of millions of dollars in funding from Iran every year. Hezbollah has sent thousands of fighters to the Syrian civil war to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government.

Hezbollah entered Lebanese politics in earnest in 1992. In the 2018 general election, he also won 71 of the 128 seats in parliament. In the general election held in May last year, he only secured 61 seats.

Hezbollah possesses enough rockets and missiles to attack Israel and has a significant number of troops. Accordingly, Hezbollah has been evaluated as having stronger military power than the Lebanese regular army. In particular, Hezbollah claimed that it has 100,000 trained fighters as of 2021.

Hezbollah fighters are aiming rockets toward Israel from the southern border of Lebanon. [Iran Tasnim News]

Middle East military experts pointed out that Hezbollah has accumulated tremendous combat experience not only in Syria but also in Iraq and Yemen. Firas Maqsad, a senior researcher at the U.S. think tank Middle East Institute (MEI), said, “Hamas is a child compared to Hezbollah,” and emphasized, “Hezbollah is the most powerful non-state military in the world.” Researcher Maksad argued, “Hezbollah’s participation in the war will be a game changer not only for Israel but for the entire Middle East.”

Foreign Policy (FP), an American diplomatic magazine, pointed out that “Hezbollah is a more powerful organization than Hamas” and that “if it participates in the war, it will inflict a much greater blow to Israel.” In fact, Hezbollah has been considered Israel’s strongest enemy.

Hezbollah has turned hundreds of villages in southern Lebanon into de facto military bases and has deployed various rockets and medium- and short-range missiles. According to the Israeli military, the number of rockets and short- and medium-range missiles deployed by Hezbollah is estimated to be 120,000 to 150,000. Hezbollah’s missiles include Katyusha rockets (range 29 km), Iranian-made Fajr-3 missiles (40 km), Fajr-5 missiles (75 km), and Zelzal-2 missiles (200 km), which can hit the Israeli capital Tel. It can attack major cities, including Aviv. In particular, it is believed to possess Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles (300 km) and North Korean-made Scud-D missiles (700 km) that can carry biological and biological weapons. Hezbollah stores rockets and missiles in underground arsenals in schools and apartments to prevent destruction by Israeli air strikes.

Middle East military experts believe that Hezbollah, which has powerful military capabilities, will need Iran’s approval to participate in the war. Hilal Khasan, a professor at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon, pointed out, “Hezbollah has received full support from Iran, so attacks against Israel have no choice but to follow Iran’s will.” Muhammad Aliyah, a senior researcher at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, also said, “It appears that the decision to escalate the war lies in the hands of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei.”

The United States strongly warned not only Hezbollah but also Iran not to intervene in the Israel-Hamas war. In an interview with CBS on October 15, U.S. President Joe Biden repeated the word “Don’t” four times when asked, “What is your message to Hezbollah and Iran, which sponsors it?” It means not to intervene in the war.

The U.S. government transferred $6 billion (approximately 8.11 trillion won) of Iranian crude oil that had been frozen in Korea to Qatar Bank in exchange for the repatriation of five of its citizens detained by Iran, and freezing it again allowed Hezbollah’s intervention. It can be seen as a warning not to do something. The United States’ additional deployment of the Dwight Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group, following the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier strike group, in the eastern Mediterranean Sea can be analyzed as an intention to prevent attacks on Israel by Hezbollah, instigated by Iran.

The world’s largest American nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the Gerald Ford, is sailing. [US Navy]

In a speech to the Knesset (Israel’s unicameral parliament) on October 16, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran and Hezbollah, “Do not test us in the north of (Israel).” The Israeli military issued an evacuation order to residents of 28 areas adjacent to the northern border, within 2km of the Lebanese border.

With the ‘Hezbollah card’ in hand, Iran is using a strategy to maximize its own interests through the Israel-Hamas armed war. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdullahian, who recently met with Hassan Nasrallah, claimed, “If Hezbollah joins the battle, the war will expand to other parts of the Middle East, and Israel will experience a ‘major earthquake.’” Minister Amir Abdullahian went on to emphasize that “Hezbollah is considering all scenarios of war,” and that “Israel must stop its attacks on the Gaza Strip as quickly as possible.” This statement is intended to prevent Israel’s retaliatory attacks on Hamas by warning of the possibility of Hezbollah participating in the war, and to represent the Palestinian people who will inevitably suffer the most serious damage.

It can be seen that Iran’s intention is to strengthen its hegemony in the Middle East through this war, using gains such as preventing the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s warning that Iran could be drawn into conflict if the Israeli military’s crimes against civilians in the Gaza Strip are not stopped can be understood in the same context.

The Gaza Strip is burning after an Israeli airstrike on October 11. [뉴시스]

Iran’s intention is to expand its influence in the Middle East by attracting the Sunnis, who have always been sharply opposed by anti-Americanism and anti-Israel, to pro-Iran forces. “Iran always says it is ready to fight for the last Lebanese and Palestinian,” said Eyal Jiser, a professor at Tel Aviv University. “Iran has nothing to gain by escalating the war. “This will be especially true if the United States intervenes,” he pointed out.

There are variables. If Israel’s attack on the Gaza Strip causes massive civilian casualties and intensifies anger among Muslims in the Middle East, Iran may tolerate Hezbollah’s participation in the war. There are a large number of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. If the number of Palestinian casualties in the Gaza Strip increases rapidly, it will be a burden for Hezbollah. Kelly Petillo, a researcher specializing in Lebanon at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), pointed out, “If Israel’s attack on the Gaza Strip goes too far, it could become a red line for Hezbollah.” In this case, Israel must wage war simultaneously on two fronts, South and North. If Israel and Hezbollah go to war, not only Iran but also Syria may become involved, escalating into the fifth Middle East war.

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.