The Liberal Democratic Party won the House of Representatives election, and the opposition party independent candidate won the House of Councilors election.
“The decline in cabinet approval ratings also has an impact on the election results… “If things continue like this, we won’t be able to fight in the House of Representatives elections.”
On the 22nd, the ruling and opposition parties won one seat each in the by-elections for the Nagasaki 4th district of the Japanese House of Representatives (House of Representatives) and the Tokushima and Koji constituencies of the House of Councilors (Senate). It is assessed that this is a significant blow to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who was considering dissolving the House of Representatives within this year.
In Nagasaki’s 4th district, Yozo Kaneko (40), a political newcomer from the Liberal Democratic Party who ran on the recommendation of the ruling coalition Komeito Party, was elected, beating Seiichi Suesugu from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.
In the Tokushima-Koji constituency of the House of Councilors, independent candidate Hirota Hajime (55), who served as a member of the House of Representatives for the Constitutional Democratic Party, won the competition against the Liberal Democratic Party’s candidate Ken Nishiuchi.
The Nagasaki 4th district of the House of Representatives was held as a by-election due to the death of a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Tokushima and Koji constituencies of the House of Councilors were held due to the resignation of a member for beating his personal secretary.
The two by-elections were the first national elections of the second Kishida reorganized cabinet, which was launched in September, and the government’s high inflation measures and the Kishida cabinet’s political stance became issues. All of them were seats belonging to the Liberal Democratic Party before the by-election. In particular, the Nagasaki 4th ward is a constituency where the Liberal Democratic Party won four consecutive elections in the past House of Representatives election, and in by-elections due to deaths, the deceased candidate tended to have the upper hand, but the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on the 23rd that it suffered unexpectedly.
The Yomiuri Shimbun said, “Not only did the Liberal Democratic Party lose in the House of Councilors by-election, but it also struggled in the Nagasaki 4th district of the House of Representatives, which is a strong conservative base, and the view that ‘dissolution of the House of Representatives within the year is difficult’ has spread within the ruling party,” and “Prime Minister Kishida said that in the future, “We will carefully consider the timing of dissolving the House of Representatives while exploring ways to boost the regime,” it was reported on the 23rd.
The slump in cabinet approval ratings appears to have had an impact on the election results, and voices within the ruling party are said to be saying, “We cannot fight the House of Representatives election as is.”
Regarding the Liberal Democratic Party’s struggles in this by-election, Nihon Keizai pointed out, “What appears to be a factor is the cabinet approval rating, which is at its lowest level since the inauguration of the administration.” The newspaper explained that a survey conducted by Kyodo News on the 14th and 15th continued the downward trend at each media outlet, with the rate falling to 32.3%, a 7.5 percentage point decrease from September of last year.
Usually, economic measures based on the budget or taxes are the easiest for a prime minister to appeal to voters, but the income tax cut ordered by Prime Minister Kishida to ruling party executives on the 20th is receiving a negative response.
There are many negative reactions within the Liberal Democratic Party, such as “It is not suitable as a measure for high inflation.” Meanwhile, Nihon Keizai pointed out that if the income tax cut is criticized in the National Assembly deliberation, which begins on the 23rd, it may cause the cabinet’s approval rating to drop by a notch.
This newspaper also pointed out that a request was made to the Tokyo District Court on the 13th of this month, before the by-election, to order the dissolution of the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification (former Unification Church), which had strong voter interest, and that the extraordinary National Assembly passed a property preservation bill to provide relief to victims of the former Unification Church. It was predicted that there would be no choice but to be attacked by the opposition party.
Nihon Keizai said, “The same goes for the greeting card, which is a matter of the prime minister’s full authority,” and added, “Although a cabinet reshuffle was carried out in September, the net inflow of factions was noticeable, and women were not appointed as deputy ministers and political affairs officers, so it did not lead to an increase in approval ratings within the party.” “The prime minister, who is leading the fourth faction, has oppressed the party by maintaining an environment in which the House of Representatives can be dissolved, but the difficult election conditions revealed by the by-election threaten to overturn this structure,” he analyzed.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.