Scientific report assumes continued use of fossil fuels
“Global temperature will rise by more than 1.5 degrees by 2029”
“We should try to reduce it by even 0.1 degrees”
A study has shown that if fossil fuels continue to be used, the temperature rise will exceed the internationally agreed upon limit for global warming in five years.
According to the U.S. Associated Press on the 30th (local time), a United Nations scientific report was released stating that if fossil fuels continue to be burned at the current rate, the Earth’s temperature, which is the climate critical point, will rise by more than 1.5 degrees by early 2029. This figure is three years earlier than previous studies.
The climate critical point is a figure set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which is the global goal of keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees after industrialization.
Over the past 10 years, global temperatures have already averaged 1.14 degrees higher than in the 19th century. Last year was 1.26 degrees warmer than average, and this year is likely to surpass that record, according to one study.
According to the report, if the Earth’s temperature rises, coral reefs in the ocean will disappear, glaciers will melt irreversibly, and casualties due to extreme weather such as water shortages and heat waves are expected to increase rapidly.
Additionally, the carbon budget set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is 250 billion tons. However, the world is currently emitting more than 40 billion tons of carbon per year, and at this rate, there are only 5 years and 2 months left until the carbon budget is depleted.
“It is inevitable that we will exceed the climate threshold of 1.5 degrees,” said Robin Ramball, a climatologist at Imperial College London. “To prevent a 1.5-degree rise, a carbon budget of 500 billion tons is needed by mid-2032.”
Although the carbon budget is expected to be depleted in 2029, this does not mean that global temperatures will immediately rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. “The actual temperature change will occur sooner, or in 10 or 20 years,” Ramboll added.
Researchers behind the report say that depletion of the carbon budget should not be misunderstood as the only time to stop global warming.
“We would be lucky if we could keep the global temperature increase to 1.6 or 1.7 degrees Celsius,” said Christopher Smith, a climatologist at the University of Leeds and co-author of the report. “We still have to strive for 0.1 degrees.”
Ahead of the United Nations Climate Convention General Assembly to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on the 30th of next month, world leaders say they can still maintain the 1.5 degree limit. “Maintaining the 1.5 degree limit is technically possible but politically not feasible,” Ramboll said.
“People need to act, not just worry,” said Pierce Foster, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds in England who was not a researcher on the published report. “If we act as quickly as possible, we can cut the rate of global warming in half over the next 10 years.” mentioned.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.