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“North Korea will provide artillery shells to Russia and receive $300 million to $600 million per million.”

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The U.S. White House revealed the route of support for North Korean weapons to Russia. ⓒ AFP = News 1

An expert analysis showed that the economic price North Korea receives for providing artillery shells to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, will be $300 million to $600 million (KRW 407.4 billion to KRW 814.9 billion) per million shells.

Domestic and foreign experts interpreted the close relationship between North Korea and Russia before and after the North Korea-Russia summit on September 13th this year as a temporary relationship like a “marriage of convenience.” Experts also assessed the possibility of Russia transferring cutting-edge military technology, including technology for developing military reconnaissance satellites, to North Korea in exchange for artillery shells being provided to North Korea as “low possibility.”

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● “Russia is likely to transfer old technology to North Korea on a small scale.”

Troy Stangeron, senior director at the Korea-U.S. Economic Institute (KEI) in Washington, D.C., said this while attending the ‘North Korea Economic Diagnosis’ forum hosted by the Ministry of Unification at the Westin Chosun Seoul Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 1st.

According to Director Stangeron, the number of artillery shells that Russia needs to wage a war with Ukraine each year is estimated at about 10 million. However, Russia’s annual production of artillery shells is only about 2 million. Because of this, Russia is in a situation where it has to purchase an additional 8 million artillery shells from abroad. He said, “There is a possibility that North Korea will provide millions of artillery shells to Russia.”

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Director Stangeron assumed that North Korea was providing 152mm artillery shells to Russia. He then estimated that, under this premise, the price of artillery shells that North Korea could receive from Russia would not exceed $600 per shell. He said, “The price of shells produced domestically by Russia is around $600 per shell,” and “If North Korea receives about 50-100% of Russia’s production cost, if North Korea sends 1 million shells to Russia, the price will be 3-6. “It could be worth billions of dollars,” he said.

However, domestic and foreign experts believe that there is little possibility that Russia will hand over cutting-edge military technology to North Korea in return for providing artillery shells. Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University, said, “(Between North Korea and Russia) there will only be a small-scale transfer of somewhat old technology. If North Korea receives some technology, there is a high possibility that it will resell it to a ‘third party,’ but in the end, providing technology to North Korea is not an option.” “This is because it means (Russia) creating a competitor in the international market,” Kim Byeong-yeon, a professor at Seoul National University, also predicted, “It will turn a blind eye to North Korean workers getting jobs in Russia and end up trading energy.”

● “We need to strengthen the blocking of raw material imports to prevent North Korea from producing artillery shells.”

Regarding the close relationship between North Korea and Russia since the North Korea-Russia summit this September, experts have used the expression “marriage of convenience” to emphasize that the relationship is temporary. Junya Nishino, a professor at Keio University, said, “The current Russia-North Korea cooperation is a result of the predicament that Russia faced after the invasion of Ukraine,” and added, “It should be regarded as a temporary and expedient relationship rather than a solid relationship.” He continued by explaining, “From a long-term perspective, what is more important to North Korea than Russia is still its relationship with China.”

Director Stangeron said, “If Russia provides North Korea with (military) technology that undermines South Korea’s security, South Korea must clearly disclose to Russia what measures it will take.” He added, “Even if Russia no longer implements sanctions against North Korea, it will impose sanctions on China.” “Korea should build a regional coalition of countries to remind them of their obligations,” he said. Professor Kim Byeong-yeon said, “In order to reduce North Korea’s production of artillery shells, we will need to strengthen efforts to block the import of artillery raw materials.” Professor Kim continued by saying, “We need to explain Korea’s position to Russia through diplomatic channels and persuade it to consider future Korea-Russia relations,” adding, “For this, it is necessary for Korea, the United States, and Japan to move together.”

North Korea-Russia arms trade

Source: Donga

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